SBI
PREMIER LEAGUE
Aston Villa
WDWWW
  • Jackson 6'
  • Jackson 60'
FT2 – 1
Manchester City
WWLWW
  • Haaland 52'
Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 12:30 · Villa Park
Match forecast

Total corners · model prediction

GAP-weighted · home/away splits · venue-adjusted
Match state
SETTLED · FT 2–1
Match finished. Prices are the last captured before kick-off.
5.5
Aston Villa · for
at home, per game
11.4
Total corners · projected
μ 11.36
5.9
Manchester City · for
away, per game
0369121518
Range market · price vs model fair
Under 6
Price11.00
Fair15.17
LOST
6 to 8
Price3.25
Fair3.51
LOST
9 to 11
Price2.60
Fair3.09
WON
12 to 14
Price4.00
Fair4.09
LOST
Over 14
Price9.00
Fair12.36
LOST
Market

Total Corners Over / Under 8.5

Settled · FT 2–1
Market State
Settled
Outcome
Master
Open
Close
Move
Over 8.5
1.26
Master
—
bet365
—
Pinnacle
—
bet365
1.53
Pinnacle
—
Betfair
—
Moved
Under 8.5
5.00
Master
—
bet365
—
Pinnacle
—
bet365
2.48
Pinnacle
—
Betfair
—
Moved
ⓘ SBI Tissue prices are model projections based on statistical analysis and market data. Bet responsibly. Odds are for informational purposes only.
Open is our first capture, not the market's true opening price.
Market

Total Corners Over / Under 9.5

Settled · FT 2–1
Market State
Settled
Outcome
Master
Open
Close
Move
Over 9.5
1.44
Master
—
bet365
—
Pinnacle
1.77
bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
—
Betfair
—
Moved
Under 9.5
3.35
Master
—
bet365
—
Pinnacle
2.02
bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
—
Betfair
—
Moved
ⓘ SBI Tissue prices are model projections based on statistical analysis and market data. Bet responsibly. Odds are for informational purposes only.
Open is our first capture, not the market's true opening price.
Season shape

Team corner averages

Bilateral comparison · season-long
Venue
Aston VillaManchester City
5.4
Corners for · per game
6.4
4.5
Corners against · per game
3.5
Hit rates · over markets
L2078%
Over 3.5 corners
L2090%
L2058%
Over 4.5 corners
L2065%
L2043%
Over 5.5 corners
L2056%
L2057%
Over 9.5 total
L2055%
L2043%
Over 10.5 total
L2046%
L2053%
Match corners W%
L2071%
Distribution

Corner volume · bucket frequencies

% of games landing in each band
Venue
10%
Under 6
5%
25%
6 to 8
29%
38%
9 to 11
32%
23%
12 to 14
27%
5%
Over 14
7%
Aston Villa · 40 matchesManchester City · 41 matches
Edge profile

Corner differential · for vs against

Net corners per 90 · venue-adjusted
Net edge
+2.2 · ASTON VILLA
Aston Villa · home
+2.2
net per game
For
6.2
Against
4.0
Manchester City · away
+2.1
net per game
For
5.9
Against
3.9
Market

Aston Villa Corners Over / Under 3.5

Settled · FT 2–1
Market State
Settled
Outcome
Master
Open
Close
Move
Over 3.5
1.26
Master
—
bet365
—
Pinnacle
1.66
bet365
—
Pinnacle
—
Betfair
—
Moved
Under 3.5
5.00
Master
—
bet365
—
Pinnacle
2.10
bet365
—
Pinnacle
—
Betfair
—
Moved
ⓘ SBI Tissue prices are model projections based on statistical analysis and market data. Bet responsibly. Odds are for informational purposes only.
Open is our first capture, not the market's true opening price.
Market

Manchester City Corners Over / Under 5.5

Settled · FT 2–1
Market State
Settled
Outcome
Master
Open
Close
Move
Over 5.5
1.88
Master
—
bet365
—
Pinnacle
1.83
bet365
—
Pinnacle
—
Betfair
—
Moved
Under 5.5
2.16
Master
—
bet365
—
Pinnacle
1.83
bet365
—
Pinnacle
—
Betfair
—
Moved
ⓘ SBI Tissue prices are model projections based on statistical analysis and market data. Bet responsibly. Odds are for informational purposes only.
Open is our first capture, not the market's true opening price.
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