CARABAO CUP
Derby County
LWLWL
- Szmodics 45+1'
FT1 – 2
Lincoln City
WDWWW
- House 3'
- Jefferies 23'
Saturday, 8 August 2026 · 15:00
Match forecast
Total corners · past games
Past corner counts for both teams
Match state
SETTLED · FT 1–2
Match finished. Prices are the last captured before kick-off.
3.0
Derby County · for
this season, per game
5.3
Total corners · past games added together
2.3
Lincoln City · for
this season, per game
Range market · bookmaker prices
Under 6
Price—
LOST6 to 8
Price—
LOST9 to 11
Price—
WON12 to 14
Price—
LOSTOver 14
Price—
LOSTMarket
Total Corners Over / Under 8.5
Settled · FT 1–2
Market State
Settled
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Open
Close
Move
Over 8.5
—
Estimate
—
bet365
—
Pinnacle
—
bet365
1.55
Pinnacle
—
Moved
Under 8.5
—
Estimate
—
bet365
—
Pinnacle
—
bet365
2.34
Pinnacle
—
Moved
ⓘ Bookmaker prices as quoted at the time shown beneath each card. Odds are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.
Open is our first capture, not the market's true opening price.
bet365no price on this linePinnacleas of 15:00 on 8 Augolder price
Market
Total Corners Over / Under 9.5
Settled · FT 1–2
Market State
Settled
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Open
Close
Move
Over 9.5
—
Estimate
—
bet365
—
Pinnacle
1.95
bet365
1.92
Pinnacle
—
Moved
Under 9.5
—
Estimate
—
bet365
—
Pinnacle
1.85
bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
—
Moved
ⓘ Bookmaker prices as quoted at the time shown beneath each card. Odds are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.
Open is our first capture, not the market's true opening price.
bet365as of 15:00 on 8 Augolder pricePinnacleas of 15:00 on 8 Augolder price
Market
Asian Handicap Corners 0
Settled · FT 1–2
Market State
Settled
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Open
Close
Move
Derby County 0
—
Estimate
—
bet365
—
Pinnacle
—
bet365
1.66
Pinnacle
—
Moved
Lincoln City 0
—
Estimate
—
bet365
—
Pinnacle
—
bet365
2.08
Pinnacle
—
Moved
ⓘ Bookmaker prices as quoted at the time shown beneath each card. Odds are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.
Open is our first capture, not the market's true opening price.
bet365no price on this linePinnacleas of 15:00 on 8 Augolder price
Total corners lines
bet365's main line is 9.5; Pinnacle lines 9 to 11 shown
bet365 overbet365 underPinnacle overPinnacle under
91.832.371.692.09
9.51.951.851.921.85
102.501.832.181.64
10.5––2.431.51
A dash means that bookmaker does not quote that line.
bet365as of 15:00 on 8 Augolder pricePinnacleas of 15:00 on 8 Augolder price
bet365 alternative corner lines
Within three of the main line (9.5)
OverUnder
71.305.00
81.533.40
102.501.83
113.401.50
124.501.30
A dash means bet365 does not list that line as an alternative.
bet365as of 15:00 on 8 Augolder pricePinnacleno price on this line
Corner Handicap (3-way), bet365
Team plus or minus the handicap in corners; the tie pays if the handicapped sides finish level
bet365
Derby County -12.20
Tie after the handicap8.00
Lincoln City +11.90
bet365as of 15:00 on 8 Augolder pricePinnacleno price on this line
Line check
Line vs averages
Bookmaker corner lines beside past-game averages. These are past results, not a price or a projection.
- Averages, matches played this season: Derby County 1 match, small sample; Lincoln City 3 matches, small sample
- Hit rates: all matches on record for each side (Derby County 109, Lincoln City 109)
Derby County corners for 3.00 a game, Lincoln City 2.33, together 5.33 against a 9.5 line.
Blending each side's corners for with the other's corners against gives Derby County 3.83 and Lincoln City 4.17, together 8.00 against a 9.5 line.
The added-together figure is 4.2 below the 9.5 line; the blend is 1.5 below it.
Hit rate (share of each side's matches that finished over the line, Derby County 109 matches, Lincoln City 109 matches): over 9.5: Derby County 51%, Lincoln City 45%.
Corners for at the venues: Derby County at home 3.00 (1 match, small sample), Lincoln City away 2.33 (3 matches, small sample), together 5.33.
bet365 · line 9.5 (main line)Over 1.95 · Under 1.85
added together 5.33 is 4.2 below; blend 8.00 is 1.5 below
Derby County 51%, Lincoln City 45% of matches went over
bet365as of 15:00 on 8 Augolder price
Pinnacle · line 9Over 1.69 · Under 2.09
added together 5.33 is 3.7 below; blend 8.00 is 1.0 below
hit rate is kept for half lines only
Pinnacleas of 15:00 on 8 Augolder price
Pinnacle · line 9.5Over 1.92 · Under 1.85
added together 5.33 is 4.2 below; blend 8.00 is 1.5 below
Derby County 51%, Lincoln City 45% of matches went over
Pinnacleas of 15:00 on 8 Augolder price
Pinnacle · line 10Over 2.18 · Under 1.64
added together 5.33 is 4.7 below; blend 8.00 is 2.0 below
hit rate is kept for half lines only
Pinnacleas of 15:00 on 8 Augolder price
Pinnacle · line 10.5Over 2.43 · Under 1.51
added together 5.33 is 5.2 below; blend 8.00 is 2.5 below
Derby County 40%, Lincoln City 34% of matches went over
Pinnacleas of 15:00 on 8 Augolder price
Season shape
Team corner averages
Bilateral comparison · season-long
Venue
Derby CountyLincoln City
Corners for · per game
Corners against · per game
Hit rates · over markets
L2059%Over 3.5 cornersL2059%
L2048%Over 4.5 cornersL2043%
L2037%Over 5.5 cornersL2036%
L2051%Over 9.5 totalL2045%
L2040%Over 10.5 totalL2034%
L2046%Match corners W%L2046%
Distribution
Corner volume · bucket frequencies
% of games landing in each band
Venue
10%Under 610%
41%6 to 838%
17%9 to 1131%
15%12 to 1415%
17%Over 145%
Derby County · 41 matchesLincoln City · 39 matches
Differential profile
Corner differential · for vs against
Net corners per 90 · venue-adjusted
Net difference
+0.7 · DERBY COUNTY
Derby County · home
+0.7
net per game
Lincoln City · away
-1.1
net per game
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