Group · Match 19FIFA World Cup 2026
Argentina
Manager: Lionel Scaloni
FT3 – 0
Algeria
Manager: Vladimir Petković
17' L. Messi60' L. Messi76' L. Messi
Kansas City Stadium · Wednesday, 17 June 2026 · 02:00 · FT · Argentina won after full-time.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
5.80
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
-61.4%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.21
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
+36.4%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 2 Jun 12:10older price · 157d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds2.04vs book · Bet3652.20STATS DIFF +7.6%
28
Argentina
28% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
70
Algeria
70% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
7/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Above Estimate
1.19
Estimate
1.31
Pinnacle
1.27
Marathonbet
+9.5%
Above Est.
Under 1.5
Below Estimate
6.40
Estimate
3.56
Pinnacle
3.50
Marathonbet
-43.5%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 16 Jun 23:31older price · 143d agoPinnacleas of 16 Jun 23:31older price · 143d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.32vs book · Pinnacle1.31STATS DIFF -1.0%
61
Argentina
61% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
6/10
90
Algeria
90% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
9/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Above Estimate
1.56
Estimate
1.98
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
+25.0%
Above Est.
Under 2.5
Below Estimate
2.80
Estimate
1.93
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
-30.1%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 16 Jun 23:31older price · 143d agoPinnacleas of 16 Jun 23:31older price · 143d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.68vs book · Pinnacle1.98STATS DIFF +17.7%
39
Argentina
39% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
80
Algeria
80% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
8/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Above Estimate
2.38
Estimate
3.39
Pinnacle
3.24
Marathonbet
+39.7%
Above Est.
Under 3.5
Below Estimate
1.73
Estimate
1.34
Pinnacle
1.31
Marathonbet
-22.0%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 16 Jun 23:31older price · 143d agoPinnacleas of 16 Jun 23:31older price · 143d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds3.91vs book · Pinnacle3.39STATS DIFF -13.4%
11
Argentina
11% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
2/10
40
Algeria
40% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 28, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Argentina
10 games · 0 goalless
29'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Algeria
10 games · 1 goalless
25'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

Argentina to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Above Estimate
1.05
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.11
Marathonbet
+8.8%
Above Est.
No
Below Estimate
22.50
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
6.55
Marathonbet
-70.2%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 16 Jun 23:31older price · 143d ago
Market

Algeria to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
5.60
Estimate
2.03
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathonbet
-64.8%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.23
Estimate
1.81
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathonbet
+59.7%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 16 Jun 23:31older price · 143d agoPinnacleas of 16 Jun 09:31older price · 144d ago
Group JView group
TeamPLWDL+/−GDPTSNext
1
Argentina
33008-1+79
2
Austria
31116-604
3
Algeria
31115-7-24
4
Jordan
30033-8-50
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