Group · Match 39FIFA World Cup 2026
Belgium
Manager: Rudi Garcia
FT0 – 0
Iran
Manager: Amir Ghalenoei
Los Angeles Stadium · Sunday, 21 June 2026 · 20:00 · FT · Game ended in draw.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +1.5% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference
2.08
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.05
Bet365
+1.5%
Below Bar
No
Below Estimate
1.94
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
-10.1%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 21 Jun 19:00older price · 138d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds2.29vs book · Bet3652.05STATS DIFF -10.3%
50
Belgium
50% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
5/9
38
Iran
38% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate
1.41
Estimate
1.27
Pinnacle
1.24
Marathonbet
-9.5%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Above Estimate
3.50
Estimate
3.89
Pinnacle
3.75
Marathonbet
+10.3%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 21 Jun 19:00older price · 138d agoPinnacleas of 21 Jun 19:00older price · 138d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.33vs book · Pinnacle1.27STATS DIFF -4.7%
88
Belgium
88% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
8/9
63
Iran
63% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
7/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate
2.20
Estimate
1.81
Pinnacle
1.80
Bet365
-15.9%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
Above Estimate
1.84
Estimate
2.07
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
+11.7%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 21 Jun 19:00older price · 138d agoPinnacleas of 21 Jun 19:00older price · 138d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.68vs book · Pinnacle1.81STATS DIFF +7.5%
63
Belgium
63% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
5/9
56
Iran
56% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
6/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate
4.20
Estimate
3.01
Pinnacle
2.83
Marathonbet
-31.0%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Above Estimate
1.32
Estimate
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Marathonbet
+7.8%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 21 Jun 19:00older price · 138d agoPinnacleas of 21 Jun 19:00older price · 138d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.78vs book · Pinnacle3.01STATS DIFF +69.3%
63
Belgium
63% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
5/9
50
Iran
50% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 26, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Belgium
9 games · 1 goalless
19'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Iran
10 games · 1 goalless
32'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

Belgium to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
1.28
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.10
Marathonbet
-11.3%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
4.70
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
6.90
Marathonbet
+50.0%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 21 Jun 19:00older price · 138d ago
Market

Iran to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Above Estimate
1.63
Estimate
1.81
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathonbet
+16.4%
Above Est.
No
Below Estimate
2.60
Estimate
2.02
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathonbet
-23.2%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 21 Jun 19:00older price · 138d agoPinnacleas of 21 Jun 09:31older price · 138d ago
Group GView group
TeamPLWDL+/−GDPTSNext
1
Belgium
31206-2+45
2
Egypt
31205-3+25
3
Iran
30303-303
4
New Zealand
30124-10-61
Other Group G matches5
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