Group · Match 68FIFA World Cup 2026
Croatia
Manager: Zlatko Dalić
FT2 – 1
Ghana
Manager: Carlos Brito Leal Queiróz
31' P. Sučić83' N. Vlašić
73' D. Luckassen
Philadelphia Stadium · Saturday, 27 June 2026 · 22:00 · FT · Croatia won after full-time.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
6.20
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.10
Bet365
-64.4%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.20
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
+41.9%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 27 Jun 21:31older price · 132d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds2.96vs book · Bet3652.10STATS DIFF -29.1%
38
Croatia
38% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
30
Ghana
30% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
3/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Above Estimate
1.34
Estimate
1.39
Pinnacle
1.41
Marathonbet
+8.5%
Above Est.
Under 1.5
Below Estimate
4.00
Estimate
3.07
Pinnacle
2.75
Marathonbet
-28.6%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 27 Jun 21:31older price · 132d agoPinnacleas of 27 Jun 21:31older price · 132d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.48vs book · Marathonbet1.41STATS DIFF -4.8%
75
Croatia
75% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
7/10
60
Ghana
60% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
6/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Above Estimate
2.00
Estimate
2.36
Pinnacle
2.37
Bet365
+22.2%
Above Est.
Under 2.5
Below Estimate
2.02
Estimate
1.64
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
-19.5%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 27 Jun 21:31older price · 132d agoPinnacleas of 27 Jun 21:31older price · 132d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.60vs book · Bet3652.37STATS DIFF +48.1%
75
Croatia
75% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
7/10
50
Ghana
50% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Above Estimate
3.60
Estimate
3.39
Pinnacle
4.25
Marathonbet
+21.4%
Above Est.
Under 3.5
Below Estimate
1.40
Estimate
1.29
Pinnacle
1.20
Marathonbet
-11.8%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 27 Jun 21:31older price · 132d agoPinnacleas of 27 Jun 21:31older price · 132d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.16vs book · Marathonbet4.25STATS DIFF +96.6%
63
Croatia
63% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
6/10
30
Ghana
30% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
3/10
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 30, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Croatia
10 games · 1 goalless
28'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Ghana
10 games · 1 goalless
32'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

Croatia to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Above Estimate
1.10
Estimate
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
Marathonbet
+14.0%
Above Est.
No
Below Estimate
12.00
Estimate
4.11
Pinnacle
4.25
Marathonbet
-64.6%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 27 Jun 21:31older price · 132d agoPinnacleas of 27 Jun 09:30older price · 133d ago
Market

Ghana to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
5.60
Estimate
1.68
Pinnacle
1.73
Marathonbet
-68.0%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.23
Estimate
2.21
Pinnacle
2.11
Marathonbet
+77.3%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 27 Jun 21:31older price · 132d agoPinnacleas of 27 Jun 09:30older price · 133d ago
Group LView group
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1
England
32106-2+47—
2
Croatia
32015-506—
3
Ghana
31112-204—
4
Panama
30030-4-40—
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