Group · Match 61FIFA World Cup 2026
Norway
Manager: Ståle Solbakken
FT1 – 4
France
Manager: Didier Deschamps
21' T. Aasgaard
7' O. Dembélé20' O. Dembélé32' O. Dembélé90+4' D. Doué
Boston Stadium · Friday, 26 June 2026 · 20:00 · FT · France won after full-time.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
2.46
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
-34.6%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.69
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.25
Bet365
+37.2%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 26 Jun 19:15older price · 133d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds2.00vs book · Bet3651.57STATS DIFF -21.5%
50
Norway
50% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
6/10
50
France
50% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
4/8
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate
1.37
Estimate
1.25
Pinnacle
1.09
Marathonbet
-18.7%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Above Estimate
3.75
Estimate
3.72
Pinnacle
5.50
Marathonbet
+50.7%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 26 Jun 19:15older price · 133d agoPinnacleas of 26 Jun 19:15older price · 133d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.07vs book · Pinnacle1.25STATS DIFF +17.2%
88
Norway
88% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
9/10
100
France
100% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
8/8
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate
2.10
Estimate
1.54
Pinnacle
1.50
Bet365
-26.5%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
Above Estimate
1.92
Estimate
2.57
Pinnacle
2.62
Bet365
+40.1%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 26 Jun 19:15older price · 133d agoPinnacleas of 26 Jun 19:15older price · 133d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.17vs book · Pinnacle1.54STATS DIFF +31.5%
88
Norway
88% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
9/10
83
France
83% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
7/8
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate
3.85
Estimate
2.35
Pinnacle
2.25
Marathonbet
-40.0%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Above Estimate
1.36
Estimate
1.63
Pinnacle
1.67
Marathonbet
+26.5%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 26 Jun 19:15older price · 133d agoPinnacleas of 26 Jun 19:15older price · 133d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.60vs book · Pinnacle2.35STATS DIFF +46.9%
75
Norway
75% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
8/10
50
France
50% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
4/8
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 30, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Norway
10 games · 0 goalless
28'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
France
8 games · 0 goalless
32'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

Norway to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
2.12
Estimate
1.37
Pinnacle
1.55
Marathonbet
-24.8%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.91
Estimate
3.07
Pinnacle
2.45
Marathonbet
+31.7%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 26 Jun 19:15older price · 133d agoPinnacleas of 26 Jun 09:30older price · 133d ago
Market

France to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
1.17
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.05
Marathonbet
-7.9%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
7.00
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
9.90
Marathonbet
+45.6%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 26 Jun 19:15older price · 133d ago
Group IView group
TeamPLWDL+/−GDPTSNext
1
France
330010-2+89—
2
Norway
32018-7+16—
3
Senegal
31028-6+23—
4
Iraq
30031-12-110—
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