Group · Match 41FIFA World Cup 2026
Norway
Manager: Ståle Solbakken
FT3 – 2
Senegal
Manager: Pape Thiaw
43' M. Pedersen48' E. Haaland58' E. Haaland
53' I. Sarr90+3' I. Sarr
New York New Jersey Stadium · Tuesday, 23 June 2026 · 01:00 · FT · Norway won after full-time.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +3.5% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
1.98
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
-11.5%
Below Est.
No
No Difference
2.04
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.05
Bet365
+3.5%
Below Bar
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 22 Jun 23:45older price · 137d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds2.86vs book · Bet3651.70STATS DIFF -40.5%
50
Norway
50% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
5/9
20
Senegal
20% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
3/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +1.2% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate
1.41
Estimate
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
-6.6%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
No Difference
3.50
Estimate
3.70
Pinnacle
3.44
Marathonbet
+1.2%
Below Bar
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 22 Jun 23:45older price · 137d agoPinnacleas of 22 Jun 23:45older price · 137d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.27vs book · Pinnacle1.29STATS DIFF +1.6%
88
Norway
88% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
8/9
70
Senegal
70% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
7/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate
2.20
Estimate
1.96
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
-11.2%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
Above Estimate
1.84
Estimate
1.94
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
+6.1%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 22 Jun 23:45older price · 137d agoPinnacleas of 22 Jun 23:45older price · 137d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.57vs book · Pinnacle1.96STATS DIFF +24.9%
88
Norway
88% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
8/9
40
Senegal
40% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +3.1% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate
4.20
Estimate
3.30
Pinnacle
3.12
Marathonbet
-23.9%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
No Difference
1.32
Estimate
1.35
Pinnacle
1.33
Marathonbet
+3.1%
Below Bar
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 22 Jun 23:45older price · 137d agoPinnacleas of 22 Jun 23:45older price · 137d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.74vs book · Pinnacle3.30STATS DIFF +89.7%
75
Norway
75% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
7/9
40
Senegal
40% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 31, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Norway
9 games · 0 goalless
26'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Senegal
10 games · 2 goalless
36'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

Norway to Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +4.1% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
1.36
Estimate
1.21
Pinnacle
1.26
Marathonbet
-4.5%
Below Est.
No
No Difference
3.80
Estimate
4.38
Pinnacle
3.85
Marathonbet
+4.1%
Below Bar
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 22 Jun 23:45older price · 137d agoPinnacleas of 22 Jun 09:31older price · 138d ago
Market

Senegal to Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
1.46
Estimate
1.35
Pinnacle
1.36
Marathonbet
-4.2%
Below Est.
No
No Difference
3.25
Estimate
3.14
Pinnacle
3.15
Marathonbet
-0.0%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 22 Jun 23:45older price · 137d agoPinnacleas of 22 Jun 09:31older price · 138d ago
Group IView group
TeamPLWDL+/−GDPTSNext
1
France
330010-2+89
2
Norway
32018-7+16
3
Senegal
31028-6+23
4
Iraq
30031-12-110
Other Group I matches5
Upcoming matchesNext 6
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