Group · Match 60FIFA World Cup 2026
Paraguay
Manager: Gustavo Alfaro
FT0 – 0
Australia
Manager: Tony Popovic
San Francisco Bay Area Stadium · Friday, 26 June 2026 · 03:00 · FT · Game ended in draw.
Market
Both Teams To Score
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Above Estimate1.99
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.25
Bet365
+16.0%
Above Est.
No
Below Estimate2.02
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
-19.9%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 25 Jun 22:45older price · 134d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds3.74vs book · Bet3652.25STATS DIFF -39.8%
Paraguay
22% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Australia
31% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 1.5
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Above Estimate1.41
Estimate
1.64
Pinnacle
1.62
Marathonbet
+18.2%
Above Est.
Under 1.5
Below Estimate3.50
Estimate
2.27
Pinnacle
2.28
Marathonbet
-32.9%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 25 Jun 22:45older price · 134d agoPinnacleas of 25 Jun 22:45older price · 134d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.07vs book · Pinnacle1.64STATS DIFF -20.8%
Paraguay
28% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Australia
69% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
8/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 2.5
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Above Estimate2.20
Estimate
3.11
Pinnacle
3.40
Bet365
+58.9%
Above Est.
Under 2.5
Below Estimate1.84
Estimate
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
-25.7%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 25 Jun 22:45older price · 134d agoPinnacleas of 25 Jun 22:45older price · 134d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds3.03vs book · Bet3653.40STATS DIFF +12.2%
Paraguay
22% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Australia
44% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 3.5
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Above Estimate4.20
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
4.95
Marathonbet
+20.7%
Above Est.
Under 3.5
Below Estimate1.32
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.11
Marathonbet
-14.0%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 25 Jun 22:45older price · 134d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds4.12vs book · Marathonbet4.95STATS DIFF +20.3%
Paraguay
11% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
3/10
Australia
38% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
3/10
Goal timing
When does the first goal arrive?
First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 27, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Paraguay
10 games · 1 goalless
26'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Australia
10 games · 1 goalless
29'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market
Paraguay to Score
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Above Estimate1.33
Estimate
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Marathonbet
+7.7%
Above Est.
No
Below Estimate4.10
Estimate
2.91
Pinnacle
2.72
Marathonbet
-31.1%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 25 Jun 22:45older price · 134d agoPinnacleas of 25 Jun 09:31older price · 135d ago
Market
Australia to Score
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Above Estimate1.50
Estimate
1.63
Pinnacle
1.60
Marathonbet
+9.6%
Above Est.
No
Below Estimate3.05
Estimate
2.30
Pinnacle
2.19
Marathonbet
-25.5%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 25 Jun 22:45older price · 134d agoPinnacleas of 25 Jun 09:31older price · 135d ago
Group DView group
| Team | PL | W | D | L | +/− | GD | PTS | Next | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8-4 | +4 | 6 | — |
| 2 | Australia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | — |
| 3 | Paraguay | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2-4 | -2 | 4 | — |
| 4 | Türkiye | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3-5 | -2 | 3 | — |
Other Group D matches5
Upcoming matchesNext 6
No upcoming fixtures.