Group · Match 47FIFA World Cup 2026
Portugal
Manager: Roberto Martínez Montoliú
FT5 – 0
Uzbekistan
Manager: Fabio Cannavaro
6' C. Ronaldo17' N. Mendes39' C. Ronaldo60' A. Nematov (OG)87' R. Leão
Houston Stadium · Tuesday, 23 June 2026 · 18:00 · FT · Portugal won after full-time.
Market
Both Teams To Score
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate3.40
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.50
Bet365
-24.2%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate1.43
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.50
Bet365
+7.9%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 23 Jun 16:31older price · 136d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds2.29vs book · Bet3652.50STATS DIFF +9.4%
Portugal
50% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 7
4/7
Uzbekistan
38% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 1.5
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate1.41
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.11
Marathonbet
-19.0%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Above Estimate3.50
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
5.15
Marathonbet
+51.5%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 23 Jun 16:31older price · 136d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.43vs book · Marathonbet1.11STATS DIFF -22.5%
Portugal
83% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 7
6/7
Uzbekistan
56% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 2.5
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate2.20
Estimate
1.45
Pinnacle
1.50
Bet365
-29.9%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
Above Estimate1.84
Estimate
2.71
Pinnacle
2.62
Bet365
+46.4%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 23 Jun 16:31older price · 136d agoPinnacleas of 23 Jun 16:31older price · 136d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.71vs book · Bet3651.50STATS DIFF -12.5%
Portugal
67% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 7
4/7
Uzbekistan
50% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 3.5
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate4.20
Estimate
2.20
Pinnacle
2.18
Marathonbet
-46.8%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Above Estimate1.32
Estimate
1.71
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathonbet
+32.6%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 23 Jun 16:31older price · 136d agoPinnacleas of 23 Jun 16:31older price · 136d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.92vs book · Pinnacle2.20STATS DIFF +14.6%
Portugal
67% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 7
4/7
Uzbekistan
38% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Goal timing
When does the first goal arrive?
First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 30, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Portugal
7 games · 0 goalless
23'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Uzbekistan
10 games · 2 goalless
36'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market
Portugal to Score
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate1.15
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.03
Marathonbet
-7.2%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate8.20
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
12.25
Marathonbet
+53.1%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 23 Jun 16:31older price · 136d ago
Market
Uzbekistan to Score
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +3.4% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate2.96
Estimate
2.35
Pinnacle
2.50
Marathonbet
-13.2%
Below Est.
No
No Difference1.52
Estimate
1.61
Pinnacle
1.53
Marathonbet
+3.4%
Below Bar
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 23 Jun 16:31older price · 136d agoPinnacleas of 23 Jun 09:30older price · 137d ago
Group KView group
| Team | PL | W | D | L | +/− | GD | PTS | Next | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4-1 | +3 | 7 | |
| 2 | Portugal | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6-1 | +5 | 5 | |
| 3 | Congo DR | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4-3 | +1 | 4 | |
| 4 | Uzbekistan | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2-11 | -9 | 0 |
Other Group K matches5
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