Group · Match 43FIFA World Cup 2026
Argentina
Manager: Lionel Scaloni
FT2 – 0
Austria
Manager: Ralf Rangnick
38' L. Messi90+5' L. Messi
Dallas Stadium · Monday, 22 June 2026 · 18:00 · FT · Argentina won after full-time.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
4.40
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.05
Bet365
-52.3%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.31
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
+33.9%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 22 Jun 17:30older price · 137d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds3.06vs book · Bet3652.05STATS DIFF -33.1%
28
Argentina
28% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
3/10
38
Austria
38% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
4/9
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate
1.35
Estimate
1.32
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
-2.3%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Below Estimate
3.90
Estimate
3.53
Pinnacle
3.44
Marathonbet
-9.5%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 22 Jun 17:30older price · 137d agoPinnacleas of 22 Jun 17:30older price · 137d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.47vs book · Pinnacle1.32STATS DIFF -10.2%
61
Argentina
61% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
6/10
75
Austria
75% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
7/9
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate
2.04
Estimate
2.00
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
-3.6%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
Below Estimate
1.98
Estimate
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
-1.0%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 22 Jun 17:30older price · 137d agoPinnacleas of 22 Jun 17:30older price · 137d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.25vs book · Pinnacle2.00STATS DIFF -11.1%
39
Argentina
39% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
50
Austria
50% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
5/9
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate
3.65
Estimate
3.44
Pinnacle
3.24
Marathonbet
-8.7%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Below Estimate
1.38
Estimate
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Marathonbet
-2.2%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 22 Jun 17:30older price · 137d agoPinnacleas of 22 Jun 17:30older price · 137d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds5.54vs book · Pinnacle3.44STATS DIFF -37.9%
11
Argentina
11% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
2/10
25
Austria
25% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
3/9
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
16-30' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 31, landing most often in the 16-30 window.
Argentina
10 games · 0 goalless
30'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Austria
9 games · 0 goalless
33'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

Argentina to Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +3.7% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference
1.11
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.12
Marathonbet
+3.7%
Below Bar
No
Below Estimate
11.00
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
6.25
Marathonbet
-40.5%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 22 Jun 17:30older price · 137d ago
Market

Austria to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
3.95
Estimate
1.83
Pinnacle
1.87
Marathonbet
-51.4%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.35
Estimate
1.99
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
+47.3%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 22 Jun 17:30older price · 137d agoPinnacleas of 22 Jun 09:30older price · 138d ago
Group JView group
TeamPLWDL+/−GDPTSNext
1
Argentina
33008-1+79
2
Austria
31116-604
3
Algeria
31115-7-24
4
Jordan
30033-8-50
Other Group J matches5
Upcoming matchesNext 6
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