R16 · Match 91FIFA World Cup 2026
Brazil
Manager: Carlo Ancelotti
FT1 – 2
Norway
Manager: Ståle Solbakken
90+10' Neymar (P)
79' E. Haaland90' E. Haaland
New York New Jersey Stadium · Sunday, 5 July 2026 · 21:00 · FT · Norway won after full-time.
Officiating
Referee profile
Sample
NO REFEREE
I. Elfath
Market
Total Cards Over/Under 2.5
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +3.7% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
No Difference1.65
Estimate
1.71
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
+3.7%
Below Bar
Under 2.5
Below Estimate2.56
Estimate
2.15
Pinnacle
2.10
Bet365
-15.3%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 5 Jul 20:30older price · 124d agoPinnacleas of 5 Jul 20:30older price · 124d ago
Market
Total Cards Over/Under 3.5
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +1.9% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate2.62
Estimate
2.69
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
-13.4%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
No Difference1.63
Estimate
1.46
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
+1.9%
Below Bar
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 5 Jul 20:30older price · 124d agoPinnacleas of 5 Jul 20:30older price · 124d ago
Market
Total Cards Over/Under 4.5
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 4.5
Below Estimate4.80
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
3.10
Unibet
-34.0%
Below Est.
Under 4.5
Above Estimate1.27
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.30
Unibet
+5.7%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Unibetas of 5 Jul 20:30older price · 124d ago
Market
Both Teams To Receive a Card
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +2.6% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference1.57
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
+2.6%
Below Bar
No
Below Estimate2.78
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.25
Bet365
-16.7%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 5 Jul 20:30older price · 124d ago
Market
Asian Handicap Cards +0
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Brazil +0
No Difference1.27
Estimate
1.95
Pinnacle
—
Soft
—
No Diff
Norway +0
No Difference4.80
Estimate
1.87
Pinnacle
—
Soft
—
No Diff
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Pinnacleas of 5 Jul 20:30older price · 124d ago
Match odds
Player to be Booked
Latest price · implied probability
Source
BET365
OutcomePriceImplied
Casemiro
2.75—Neymar Jr
2.75—Gabriel Magalhaes
3.00—Lucas Paqueta
3.00—Roger Ibanez
3.00—Bruno Guimaraes
3.25—Vinicius Jr.
3.25—Leo Pereira
3.50—Bremer
3.50—Danilo da Silva
3.50—Morten Thorsby
3.75—Alex Sandro
3.75—Erling Haaland
3.75—Igor Thiago
3.75—Endrick
3.75—Kristoffer Ajer
4.50—Leo Ostigard
4.50—Marcus Pedersen
4.50—Sondre Langas
4.50—David Wolfe
4.50—Ederson Silva
4.75—Danilo dos Santos
4.75—Fabinho
4.75—Rayan Vitor
4.75—Sander Berge
5.00—Fredrik Aursnes
5.00—Fredrik Andre Bjorkan
5.00—Matheus Cunha
5.00—Kristian Thorstvedt
5.00—Raphinha
5.00—Alexander Sorloth
5.50—Patrick Berg
5.50—Julian Ryerson
5.50—Luiz Henrique
5.50—Booked
5.5018%Jens Hauge
5.50—Andreas Schjelderup
6.00—Alisson Becker
6.00—Martin Odegaard
7.00—Douglas Santos
7.00—Torbjorn Heggem
7.00—Gabriel Martinelli
7.00—Jorgen Larsen
7.00—Ederson
7.00—Marquinhos
7.00—Henrik Falchener
7.50—Thelonious Aasgaard
7.50—Weverton
7.50—Oscar Bobb
8.50—Antonio Nusa
8.50—Orjan Nyland
9.00—Egil Selvik
9.00—Sander Tangvik
9.00—Source: bet365 · 53 outcomes · informational only
Match odds
1st Player Booked
Latest price · implied probability
Source
BET365
OutcomePriceImplied
Casemiro
8.00—Neymar Jr
8.00—Gabriel Magalhaes
9.00—Lucas Paqueta
9.00—Roger Ibanez
9.00—Bruno Guimaraes
9.50—Vinicius Jr.
9.50—Leo Pereira
11.00—Bremer
11.00—Danilo da Silva
11.00—Morten Thorsby
12.00—Alex Sandro
12.00—Erling Haaland
12.00—Igor Thiago
12.00—Endrick
12.00—Kristoffer Ajer
15.00—Leo Ostigard
15.00—Marcus Pedersen
15.00—Sondre Langas
15.00—Danilo dos Santos
15.00—Fabinho
15.00—Ederson Silva
15.00—Rayan Vitor
15.00—David Wolfe
15.00—Sander Berge
17.00—Fredrik Aursnes
17.00—Fredrik Andre Bjorkan
17.00—Matheus Cunha
17.00—Kristian Thorstvedt
17.00—Raphinha
17.00—Alexander Sorloth
19.00—Patrick Berg
19.00—Julian Ryerson
19.00—Luiz Henrique
19.00—1st Card
19.005%Jens Hauge
19.00—Martin Odegaard
21.00—Torbjorn Heggem
21.00—Andreas Schjelderup
21.00—Jorgen Larsen
21.00—Alisson Becker
21.00—Douglas Santos
23.00—Gabriel Martinelli
23.00—Henrik Falchener
23.00—Weverton
23.00—Thelonious Aasgaard
23.00—Marquinhos
23.00—Ederson
23.00—Oscar Bobb
26.00—Antonio Nusa
26.00—Orjan Nyland
29.00—Egil Selvik
29.00—Sander Tangvik
29.00—Source: bet365 · 53 outcomes · informational only
Match events
Cards in this match
Total cards · Brazil 1 / Norway 0
State
FULL-TIME
90+6'Yellow cardBrazil
Neymar
Foul
Season shape
Team card averages
Bilateral comparison · qualifying campaign
Scope
OVERALL
BrazilNorway
Team cards / g
Match cards / g
Hit rates · qualifying campaign
Q72%Team cards Over 1.5Q38%
Q28%Team cards Over 2.5Q0%
Q61%Match cards Over 3.5Q13%
Q78%Both teams cardedQ50%
Overall
Brazil
72%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
61%
Match O3.5
Norway
38%
Over 1.5
0%
Over 2.5
0%
Over 3.5
13%
Match O3.5
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