Group · Match 53FIFA World Cup 2026
Czech Republic
Manager: Miroslav Koubek
FT0 – 3
Mexico
Manager: Javier Aguirre Onaindía
55' M. Chávez61' J. Quiñones90+4' Á. Fidalgo
Mexico City Stadium · Thursday, 25 June 2026 · 02:00 · FT · Mexico won after full-time.
Market
Both Teams To Score
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +5.0% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate2.18
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
-10.4%
Below Est.
No
No Difference1.86
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
+5.0%
Below Bar
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 24 Jun 22:30older price · 135d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds2.00vs book · Bet3651.90STATS DIFF -5.0%
Czech Republic
50% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Mexico: no qualifying campaign data
Market
Goals Over / Under 1.5
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate1.41
Estimate
1.34
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
-5.1%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Below Estimate3.50
Estimate
3.37
Pinnacle
3.30
Marathonbet
-2.9%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 24 Jun 22:30older price · 135d agoPinnacleas of 24 Jun 22:30older price · 135d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.11vs book · Pinnacle1.34STATS DIFF +20.6%
Czech Republic
90% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
9/10
Mexico: no qualifying campaign data
Market
Goals Over / Under 2.5
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +0.6% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate2.20
Estimate
2.07
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
-6.5%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
No Difference1.84
Estimate
1.85
Pinnacle
1.80
Bet365
+0.6%
Below Bar
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 24 Jun 22:30older price · 135d agoPinnacleas of 24 Jun 22:30older price · 135d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.43vs book · Pinnacle2.07STATS DIFF +44.9%
Czech Republic
70% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
6/10
Mexico: no qualifying campaign data
Market
Goals Over / Under 3.5
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate4.20
Estimate
3.67
Pinnacle
3.58
Marathonbet
-12.7%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Below Estimate1.32
Estimate
1.30
Pinnacle
1.26
Marathonbet
-2.3%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 24 Jun 22:30older price · 135d agoPinnacleas of 24 Jun 22:30older price · 135d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.00vs book · Pinnacle3.67STATS DIFF +83.5%
Czech Republic
50% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
3/10
Mexico: no qualifying campaign data
Goal timing
When does the first goal arrive?
First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 28, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Czech Republic
10 games · 1 goalless
28'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Mexico
2 games · 0 goalless
30'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market
Czech Republic to Score
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate1.76
Estimate
1.49
Pinnacle
1.48
Marathonbet
-13.5%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate2.34
Estimate
2.66
Pinnacle
2.65
Marathonbet
+17.3%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 24 Jun 22:30older price · 135d agoPinnacleas of 24 Jun 09:31older price · 135d ago
Market
Mexico to Score
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +0.8% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference1.24
Estimate
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Marathonbet
+0.8%
Below Bar
No
Below Estimate5.30
Estimate
4.34
Pinnacle
4.40
Marathonbet
-13.7%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 24 Jun 22:30older price · 135d agoPinnacleas of 24 Jun 09:31older price · 135d ago
Group AView group
| Team | PL | W | D | L | +/− | GD | PTS | Next | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6-0 | +6 | 9 | — |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | -1 | 4 | — |
| 3 | Korea Republic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2-3 | -1 | 3 | — |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2-6 | -4 | 1 | — |
Other Group A matches5
Upcoming matchesNext 6
No upcoming fixtures.