Group · Match 42FIFA World Cup 2026
France
Manager: Didier Deschamps
FT3 – 0
Iraq
Manager: Graham Arnold
14' K. Mbappé54' K. Mbappé66' O. Dembélé
Philadelphia Stadium · Monday, 22 June 2026 · 22:00 · FT · France won after full-time.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
5.70
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.62
Bet365
-53.2%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.22
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.44
Bet365
+22.0%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 22 Jun 21:15older price · 137d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds2.35vs book · Bet3652.62STATS DIFF +11.3%
50
France
50% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 7
4/7
35
Iraq
35% overall · qualifying campaign
20 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
6/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate
1.13
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.06
Marathonbet
-3.6%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Below Estimate
9.00
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
6.40
Marathonbet
-27.3%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 22 Jun 21:15older price · 137d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.33vs book · Marathonbet1.06STATS DIFF -20.5%
100
France
100% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 7
7/7
50
Iraq
50% overall · qualifying campaign
20 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
7/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate
1.39
Estimate
1.30
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
-1.5%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
Below Estimate
3.65
Estimate
3.50
Pinnacle
3.40
Bet365
-4.2%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 22 Jun 21:15older price · 137d agoPinnacleas of 22 Jun 21:15older price · 137d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.69vs book · Bet3651.33STATS DIFF -21.3%
83
France
83% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 7
6/7
35
Iraq
35% overall · qualifying campaign
20 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate
1.94
Estimate
1.75
Pinnacle
1.73
Marathonbet
-8.0%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Above Estimate
2.08
Estimate
2.14
Pinnacle
2.15
Marathonbet
+6.4%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 22 Jun 21:15older price · 137d agoPinnacleas of 22 Jun 21:15older price · 137d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.67vs book · Pinnacle1.75STATS DIFF -34.4%
50
France
50% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 7
4/7
25
Iraq
25% overall · qualifying campaign
20 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
2/10
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 39, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
France
7 games · 0 goalless
34'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Iraq
10 games · 1 goalless
43'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

France to Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +2.0% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference
1.03
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.02
Marathonbet
+2.0%
Below Bar
No
Below Estimate
35.50
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
14.25
Marathonbet
-58.7%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 22 Jun 21:15older price · 137d ago
Market

Iraq to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
5.60
Estimate
2.74
Pinnacle
2.79
Marathonbet
-48.3%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.23
Estimate
1.47
Pinnacle
1.44
Marathonbet
+21.0%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 22 Jun 21:15older price · 137d agoPinnacleas of 22 Jun 09:31older price · 138d ago
Group IView group
TeamPLWDL+/−GDPTSNext
1
France
330010-2+89
2
Norway
32018-7+16
3
Senegal
31028-6+23
4
Iraq
30031-12-110
Other Group I matches5
Upcoming matchesNext 6
No upcoming fixtures.
All GroupsA–L
ABCDEFGHIJKL
Player PropsStandout shot / SOT / card prices