R32 · Match 74FIFA World Cup 2026
Germany
Manager: Julian Nagelsmann
FT1 – 1
Paraguay
Manager: Gustavo Alfaro
54' K. Havertz
42' J. Enciso
Boston Stadium · Monday, 29 June 2026 · 21:30 · FT · Paraguay won after penalties.
Officiating
Referee profile
Sample
NO REFEREE
J. Jayed
Market
Total Cards Over/Under 2.5
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Above Estimate1.32
Estimate
1.68
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
+29.7%
Above Est.
Under 2.5
Below Estimate4.20
Estimate
2.17
Pinnacle
2.10
Bet365
-48.8%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 29 Jun 20:30older price · 130d agoPinnacleas of 29 Jun 20:30older price · 130d ago
Market
Total Cards Over/Under 3.5
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Above Estimate1.77
Estimate
2.57
Pinnacle
2.25
Bet365
+30.8%
Above Est.
Under 3.5
Below Estimate2.32
Estimate
1.50
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
-30.5%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 29 Jun 20:30older price · 130d agoPinnacleas of 29 Jun 20:30older price · 130d ago
Market
Total Cards Over/Under 4.5
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 4.5
Above Estimate2.70
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
3.30
Unibet
+26.0%
Above Est.
Under 4.5
Below Estimate1.60
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.28
Unibet
-17.4%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Unibetas of 29 Jun 20:30older price · 130d ago
Market
Both Teams To Receive a Card
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Above Estimate1.39
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
+23.0%
Above Est.
No
Below Estimate3.65
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.10
Bet365
-40.8%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 29 Jun 20:30older price · 130d ago
Market
Asian Handicap Cards +0
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Germany +0
No Difference3.85
Estimate
3.44
Pinnacle
—
Soft
—
No Diff
Paraguay +0
No Difference1.36
Estimate
1.31
Pinnacle
—
Soft
—
No Diff
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Pinnacleas of 29 Jun 20:30older price · 130d ago
Match odds
Player to be Booked
Latest price · implied probability
Source
BET365
OutcomePriceImplied
Gustavo Gomez
3.00—Alexandro Maidana
3.00—Andres Cubas
3.00—Diego Gomez
3.20—Damian Bobadilla
3.40—Juan Caceres
3.40—Fabian Balbuena
3.75—Gustavo Velazquez
3.75—Omar Alderete
3.75—Alejandro Romero
3.75—Booked
4.0025%Junior Alonso
4.33—Jose Canale
4.33—Alex Arce
4.33—Braian Ojeda
4.33—Ramon Sosa
4.33—Matias Galarza
4.33—Prado Mauricio
4.33—Antonio Sanabria
5.00—Gabriel Avalos
5.00—Miguel Almiron
5.00—Julio Enciso
5.00—Gustavo Caballero
5.00—Isidro Pitta
5.00—Aleksandar Pavlovic
5.50—Antonio Rudiger
6.00—Nadiem Amiri
6.00—Kai Havertz
6.00—Leroy Sane
7.00—Joshua Kimmich
7.00—David Raum
7.00—Assan Ouedraogo
7.00—Pascal Gross
8.00—Jonathan Tah
8.00—Waldemar Anton
8.00—Deniz Undav
8.00—Angelo Stiller
8.00—Malick Thiaw
8.00—Nick Woltemade
8.00—Nathaniel Brown
8.00—Gaston Olveira
9.50—Jamie Leweling
9.50—Orlando Gill
9.50—Jamal Musiala
9.50—Florian Wirtz
9.50—Gatito Fernandez
9.50—Leon Goretzka
12.00—Felix Nmecha
12.00—Maximilian Beier
12.00—Manuel Neuer
15.00—Oliver Baumann
15.00—Alexander Nubel
15.00—Source: bet365 · 52 outcomes · informational only
Match odds
1st Player Booked
Latest price · implied probability
Source
BET365
OutcomePriceImplied
Gustavo Gomez
8.00—Alexandro Maidana
8.00—Andres Cubas
8.00—Diego Gomez
9.00—Damian Bobadilla
9.50—Juan Caceres
9.50—Fabian Balbuena
11.00—Gustavo Velazquez
11.00—Omar Alderete
11.00—1st Card
11.009%Alejandro Romero
11.00—Junior Alonso
13.00—Jose Canale
13.00—Alex Arce
13.00—Braian Ojeda
13.00—Ramon Sosa
13.00—Prado Mauricio
13.00—Matias Galarza
13.00—Antonio Sanabria
15.00—Gabriel Avalos
15.00—Miguel Almiron
15.00—Julio Enciso
15.00—Gustavo Caballero
15.00—Isidro Pitta
15.00—Aleksandar Pavlovic
17.00—Antonio Rudiger
19.00—Nadiem Amiri
19.00—Kai Havertz
19.00—Leroy Sane
21.00—Joshua Kimmich
21.00—David Raum
21.00—Assan Ouedraogo
21.00—Pascal Gross
23.00—Jonathan Tah
23.00—Waldemar Anton
23.00—Deniz Undav
23.00—Angelo Stiller
23.00—Malick Thiaw
23.00—Nick Woltemade
23.00—Nathaniel Brown
23.00—Gaston Olveira
29.00—Jamie Leweling
29.00—Orlando Gill
29.00—Jamal Musiala
29.00—Florian Wirtz
29.00—Gatito Fernandez
29.00—Leon Goretzka
34.00—Felix Nmecha
34.00—Maximilian Beier
34.00—Manuel Neuer
41.00—Oliver Baumann
41.00—Alexander Nubel
41.00—Source: bet365 · 52 outcomes · informational only
Match events
Cards in this match
Total cards · Germany 3 / Paraguay 3
State
FULL-TIME
65'Yellow cardParaguay
Andrés Cubas
Foul
105'Yellow cardParaguay
Gustavo Alfaro
Argument
105+1'Yellow cardGermany
Julian Nagelsmann
Argument
106'Yellow cardGermany
Kai Havertz
Foul
115'Yellow cardGermany
Jamal Musiala
Foul
117'Yellow cardParaguay
Matías Galarza Fonda
Foul
Season shape
Team card averages
Bilateral comparison · qualifying campaign
Scope
OVERALL
GermanyParaguay
Team cards / g
Match cards / g
Hit rates · qualifying campaign
Q50%Team cards Over 1.5Q67%
Q0%Team cards Over 2.5Q33%
Q50%Match cards Over 3.5Q61%
Q67%Both teams cardedQ78%
Overall
Germany
50%
Over 1.5
0%
Over 2.5
0%
Over 3.5
50%
Match O3.5
Paraguay
67%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
61%
Match O3.5
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