Group · Match 15FIFA World Cup 2026
Iran
Manager: Amir Ghalenoei
FT2 – 2
New Zealand
Manager: Darren Bazeley
32' R. Rezaeian64' M. Mohebi
7' E. Just54' E. Just
Los Angeles Stadium · Tuesday, 16 June 2026 · 02:00 · FT · Game ended in draw.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +2.3% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
2.32
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
-11.5%
Below Est.
No
No Difference
1.76
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
+2.3%
Below Bar
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 2 Jun 12:10older price · 157d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds3.48vs book · Bet3652.00STATS DIFF -42.5%
38
Iran
38% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
20
New Zealand
20% overall · qualifying campaign
5 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 5
1/5
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +4.4% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
No Difference
1.41
Estimate
1.47
Pinnacle
1.43
Marathonbet
+4.4%
Below Bar
Under 1.5
Below Estimate
3.50
Estimate
2.80
Pinnacle
2.68
Marathonbet
-21.2%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 15 Jun 22:31older price · 144d agoPinnacleas of 15 Jun 22:31older price · 144d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.23vs book · Pinnacle1.47STATS DIFF +19.4%
63
Iran
63% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
6/10
100
New Zealand
100% overall · qualifying campaign
5 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 5
5/5
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Above Estimate
2.20
Estimate
2.44
Pinnacle
2.37
Bet365
+10.7%
Above Est.
Under 2.5
Below Estimate
1.84
Estimate
1.59
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
-12.3%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 15 Jun 22:31older price · 144d agoPinnacleas of 15 Jun 22:31older price · 144d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.28vs book · Pinnacle2.44STATS DIFF +90.7%
56
Iran
56% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
100
New Zealand
100% overall · qualifying campaign
5 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 5
5/5
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Above Estimate
4.20
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
4.60
Marathonbet
+12.2%
Above Est.
Under 3.5
Below Estimate
1.32
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.17
Marathonbet
-9.3%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 15 Jun 22:31older price · 144d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.82vs book · Marathonbet4.60STATS DIFF +153.0%
50
Iran
50% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
60
New Zealand
60% overall · qualifying campaign
5 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 5
3/5
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 30, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Iran
10 games · 1 goalless
35'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
New Zealand
5 games · 0 goalless
21'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

Iran to Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +4.2% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference
1.21
Estimate
1.26
Pinnacle
1.23
Marathonbet
+4.2%
Below Bar
No
Below Estimate
5.90
Estimate
3.80
Pinnacle
4.20
Marathonbet
-26.3%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 15 Jun 22:31older price · 144d agoPinnacleas of 15 Jun 09:31older price · 145d ago
Market

New Zealand to Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +0.5% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
1.93
Estimate
1.70
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathonbet
-5.3%
Below Est.
No
No Difference
2.10
Estimate
2.17
Pinnacle
2.05
Marathonbet
+0.5%
Below Bar
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 15 Jun 22:31older price · 144d agoPinnacleas of 15 Jun 09:31older price · 145d ago
Group GView group
TeamPLWDL+/−GDPTSNext
1
Belgium
31206-2+45
2
Egypt
31205-3+25
3
Iran
30303-303
4
New Zealand
30124-10-61
Other Group G matches5
Upcoming matchesNext 6
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