Group · Match 57FIFA World Cup 2026
Japan
Manager: Hajime Moriyasu
FT1 – 1
Sweden
Manager: Graham Potter
56' D. Maeda
62' A. Elanga
Dallas Stadium · Friday, 26 June 2026 · 00:00 · FT · Game ended in draw.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
2.24
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
-19.7%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.81
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
+13.6%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 25 Jun 23:00older price · 134d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds2.67vs book · Bet3651.75STATS DIFF -34.4%
13
Japan
13% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
3/10
63
Sweden
63% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
7/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate
1.41
Estimate
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
-6.6%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
No Difference
3.50
Estimate
3.78
Pinnacle
3.40
Marathonbet
-0.0%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 25 Jun 23:00older price · 134d agoPinnacleas of 25 Jun 23:00older price · 134d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.18vs book · Marathonbet1.28STATS DIFF +8.0%
81
Japan
81% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
8/10
88
Sweden
88% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
9/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +0.6% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate
2.20
Estimate
1.94
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
-6.5%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
No Difference
1.84
Estimate
1.96
Pinnacle
1.80
Bet365
+0.6%
Below Bar
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 25 Jun 23:00older price · 134d agoPinnacleas of 25 Jun 23:00older price · 134d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.78vs book · Bet3652.00STATS DIFF +12.5%
63
Japan
63% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
50
Sweden
50% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
6/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +2.3% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate
4.20
Estimate
3.25
Pinnacle
3.18
Marathonbet
-22.4%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
No Difference
1.32
Estimate
1.36
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
+2.3%
Below Bar
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 25 Jun 23:00older price · 134d agoPinnacleas of 25 Jun 23:00older price · 134d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.88vs book · Pinnacle3.25STATS DIFF +72.7%
56
Japan
56% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
50
Sweden
50% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
6/10
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 33, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Japan
10 games · 1 goalless
41'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Sweden
10 games · 0 goalless
25'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

Japan to Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +3.4% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference
1.23
Estimate
1.22
Pinnacle
1.23
Marathonbet
+3.4%
Below Bar
No
Below Estimate
5.60
Estimate
3.87
Pinnacle
4.20
Marathonbet
-22.2%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 25 Jun 23:00older price · 134d agoPinnacleas of 25 Jun 09:31older price · 135d ago
Market

Sweden to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
1.84
Estimate
1.47
Pinnacle
1.41
Marathonbet
-21.2%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
2.20
Estimate
2.72
Pinnacle
2.91
Marathonbet
+36.0%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 25 Jun 23:00older price · 134d agoPinnacleas of 25 Jun 09:31older price · 135d ago
Group FView group
TeamPLWDL+/−GDPTSNext
1
Netherlands
321010-4+67—
2
Japan
31207-3+45—
3
Sweden
31117-704—
4
Tunisia
30032-12-100—
Other Group F matches5
Upcoming matchesNext 6
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