Group · Match 54FIFA World Cup 2026
South Africa
Manager: Hugo Broos
FT1 – 0
Korea Republic
Manager: Myung-Bo Hong
63' T. Maseko
Monterrey Stadium · Thursday, 25 June 2026 · 02:00 · FT · South Africa won after full-time.
Market
Both Teams To Score
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate2.72
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
-24.2%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate1.59
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
+13.6%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 24 Jun 23:45older price · 135d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds2.39vs book · Bet3652.00STATS DIFF -16.2%
South Africa
40% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Korea Republic
44% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
6/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 1.5
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate1.41
Estimate
1.35
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
-3.6%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Below Estimate3.50
Estimate
3.33
Pinnacle
3.18
Marathonbet
-6.5%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 24 Jun 23:45older price · 135d agoPinnacleas of 24 Jun 23:45older price · 135d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.13vs book · Pinnacle1.35STATS DIFF +19.8%
South Africa
90% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
9/10
Korea Republic
88% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
9/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 2.5
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +0.6% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate2.20
Estimate
2.08
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
-6.5%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
No Difference1.84
Estimate
1.81
Pinnacle
1.80
Bet365
+0.6%
Below Bar
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 24 Jun 23:45older price · 135d agoPinnacleas of 24 Jun 23:45older price · 135d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.22vs book · Pinnacle2.08STATS DIFF -6.4%
South Africa
40% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
3/10
Korea Republic
50% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 3.5
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate4.20
Estimate
3.62
Pinnacle
3.50
Marathonbet
-14.6%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Below Estimate1.32
Estimate
1.30
Pinnacle
1.27
Marathonbet
-1.6%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 24 Jun 23:45older price · 135d agoPinnacleas of 24 Jun 23:45older price · 135d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds4.21vs book · Pinnacle3.62STATS DIFF -14.0%
South Africa
10% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
1/10
Korea Republic
38% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
3/10
Goal timing
When does the first goal arrive?
First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 29, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
South Africa
10 games · 1 goalless
23'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Korea Republic
10 games · 0 goalless
35'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market
South Africa to Score
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate2.34
Estimate
1.67
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathonbet
-22.6%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate1.76
Estimate
2.24
Pinnacle
2.08
Marathonbet
+21.6%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 24 Jun 23:45older price · 135d agoPinnacleas of 24 Jun 09:31older price · 136d ago
Market
Korea Republic to Score
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +1.8% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference1.17
Estimate
1.21
Pinnacle
1.16
Marathonbet
+1.8%
Below Bar
No
Below Estimate7.00
Estimate
4.03
Pinnacle
5.25
Marathonbet
-22.8%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 24 Jun 23:45older price · 135d agoPinnacleas of 24 Jun 09:31older price · 136d ago
Group AView group
| Team | PL | W | D | L | +/− | GD | PTS | Next | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6-0 | +6 | 9 | — |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | -1 | 4 | — |
| 3 | Korea Republic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2-3 | -1 | 3 | — |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2-6 | -4 | 1 | — |
Other Group A matches5
Upcoming matchesNext 6
No upcoming fixtures.