Group · Match 38FIFA World Cup 2026
Spain
Manager: Luis De la Fuente Castillo
FT4 – 0
Saudi Arabia
Manager: Giorgios Donis
10' L. Yamal21' M. Oyarzabal24' M. Oyarzabal49' H. Tambakti (OG)
Atlanta Stadium · Sunday, 21 June 2026 · 17:00 · FT · Spain won after full-time.
Market
Both Teams To Score
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate5.70
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.62
Bet365
-52.4%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate1.22
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.44
Bet365
+21.0%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 21 Jun 15:45older price · 138d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds4.00vs book · Bet3652.62STATS DIFF -34.5%
Spain
17% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 7
1/7
Saudi Arabia
33% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
3/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 1.5
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +1.9% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
No Difference1.08
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.07
Marathonbet
+1.9%
Below Bar
Under 1.5
Below Estimate14.00
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
6.20
Marathonbet
-55.7%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 21 Jun 15:45older price · 138d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.20vs book · Marathonbet1.07STATS DIFF -10.8%
Spain
100% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 7
6/7
Saudi Arabia
67% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 2.5
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Above Estimate1.25
Estimate
1.32
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
+9.0%
Above Est.
Under 2.5
Below Estimate5.10
Estimate
3.31
Pinnacle
3.40
Bet365
-32.0%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 21 Jun 15:45older price · 138d agoPinnacleas of 21 Jun 15:45older price · 138d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.72vs book · Bet3651.33STATS DIFF -22.5%
Spain
83% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 7
5/7
Saudi Arabia
33% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
2/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 3.5
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Above Estimate1.61
Estimate
1.91
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathonbet
+22.3%
Above Est.
Under 3.5
Below Estimate2.66
Estimate
1.98
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathonbet
-25.6%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 21 Jun 15:45older price · 138d agoPinnacleas of 21 Jun 15:45older price · 138d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.57vs book · Marathonbet1.92STATS DIFF -25.3%
Spain
67% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 7
4/7
Saudi Arabia
11% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
1/10
Goal timing
When does the first goal arrive?
First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 21, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Spain
7 games · 1 goalless
14'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Saudi Arabia
10 games · 4 goalless
28'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market
Spain to Score
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +2.0% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference1.02
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.01
Marathonbet
+2.0%
Below Bar
No
Below Estimate60.50
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
16.25
Marathonbet
-72.5%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 21 Jun 15:45older price · 138d ago
Market
Saudi Arabia to Score
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate5.60
Estimate
2.62
Pinnacle
2.75
Marathonbet
-49.1%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate1.23
Estimate
1.50
Pinnacle
1.45
Marathonbet
+21.8%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 21 Jun 15:45older price · 138d agoPinnacleas of 21 Jun 09:30older price · 139d ago
Group HView group
| Team | PL | W | D | L | +/− | GD | PTS | Next | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5-0 | +5 | 7 | |
| 2 | Cape Verde Islands | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | |
| 3 | Uruguay | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3-4 | -1 | 2 | |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1-5 | -4 | 2 |
Other Group H matches5
Upcoming matchesNext 6
No upcoming fixtures.