Group · Match 37FIFA World Cup 2026
Uruguay
Manager: Marcelo Bielsa Caldera
FT2 – 2
Cape Verde Islands
Manager: Pedro Leitão Brito
44' M. Araújo45+6' A. Canobbio
21' K. Lenini61' H. Varela
Miami Stadium · Sunday, 21 June 2026 · 23:00 · FT · Game ended in draw.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
6.20
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.62
Bet365
-56.3%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.20
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.44
Bet365
+23.1%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 21 Jun 21:46older price · 138d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds3.46vs book · Bet3652.62STATS DIFF -24.3%
28
Uruguay
28% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
3/10
30
Cape Verde Islands
30% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
3/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +3.0% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
No Difference
1.38
Estimate
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Marathonbet
+3.0%
Below Bar
Under 1.5
Below Estimate
3.65
Estimate
3.09
Pinnacle
2.88
Marathonbet
-18.9%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 21 Jun 21:46older price · 138d agoPinnacleas of 21 Jun 21:46older price · 138d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.65vs book · Pinnacle1.39STATS DIFF -15.8%
61
Uruguay
61% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
6/10
60
Cape Verde Islands
60% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
6/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Above Estimate
2.12
Estimate
2.20
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
+6.8%
Above Est.
Under 2.5
Below Estimate
1.90
Estimate
1.72
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
-10.3%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 21 Jun 21:46older price · 138d agoPinnacleas of 21 Jun 21:46older price · 138d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.73vs book · Bet3652.20STATS DIFF -19.4%
33
Uruguay
33% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
2/10
40
Cape Verde Islands
40% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +3.7% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
No Difference
3.95
Estimate
3.53
Pinnacle
3.94
Marathonbet
+3.7%
Below Bar
Under 3.5
Below Estimate
1.35
Estimate
1.27
Pinnacle
1.22
Marathonbet
-6.9%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 21 Jun 21:46older price · 138d agoPinnacleas of 21 Jun 21:46older price · 138d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds5.45vs book · Marathonbet3.94STATS DIFF -27.7%
17
Uruguay
17% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
1/10
20
Cape Verde Islands
20% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
2/10
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 35, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Uruguay
10 games · 3 goalless
38'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Cape Verde Islands
10 games · 1 goalless
33'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

Uruguay to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Above Estimate
1.11
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.14
Marathonbet
+5.6%
Above Est.
No
Below Estimate
11.00
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
5.65
Marathonbet
-46.2%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 21 Jun 21:46older price · 138d ago
Market

Cape Verde Islands to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
5.60
Estimate
2.19
Pinnacle
2.28
Marathonbet
-57.8%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.23
Estimate
1.69
Pinnacle
1.63
Marathonbet
+37.0%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 21 Jun 21:46older price · 138d agoPinnacleas of 21 Jun 09:31older price · 138d ago
Group HView group
TeamPLWDL+/−GDPTSNext
1
Spain
32105-0+57
2
Cape Verde Islands
30302-203
3
Uruguay
30213-4-12
4
Saudi Arabia
30211-5-42
Other Group H matches5
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