R32 · Match 76FIFA World Cup 2026
Brazil
Manager: Carlo Ancelotti
FT2 – 1
Japan
Manager: Hajime Moriyasu
56' Casemiro90+5' G. Martinelli
29' K. Sano
Houston Stadium · Monday, 29 June 2026 · 18:00 · FT · Brazil won after full-time.
Market
Both Teams To Score
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference—
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
—
No Diff
No
No Difference—
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.80
Bet365
—
No Diff
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 29 Jun 17:00older price · 130d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds3.51vs book · Bet3651.95STATS DIFF -44.5%
Brazil
44% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Japan
13% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 1.5
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
No Difference—
Estimate
1.40
Pinnacle
1.36
Marathonbet
—
No Diff
Under 1.5
No Difference—
Estimate
3.03
Pinnacle
2.98
Marathonbet
—
No Diff
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 29 Jun 17:00older price · 130d agoPinnacleas of 29 Jun 17:00older price · 130d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.40vs book · Pinnacle1.40STATS DIFF -0.3%
Brazil
61% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
7/10
Japan
81% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
8/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 2.5
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
No Difference—
Estimate
2.25
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
—
No Diff
Under 2.5
No Difference—
Estimate
1.70
Pinnacle
1.80
Bet365
—
No Diff
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 29 Jun 17:00older price · 130d agoPinnacleas of 29 Jun 17:00older price · 130d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.97vs book · Pinnacle2.25STATS DIFF +14.1%
Brazil
39% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Japan
63% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 3.5
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
No Difference—
Estimate
3.48
Pinnacle
3.98
Marathonbet
—
No Diff
Under 3.5
No Difference—
Estimate
1.32
Pinnacle
1.22
Marathonbet
—
No Diff
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 29 Jun 17:00older price · 130d agoPinnacleas of 29 Jun 17:00older price · 130d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.74vs book · Marathonbet3.98STATS DIFF +45.3%
Brazil
17% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
1/10
Japan
56% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Goal timing
When does the first goal arrive?
First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 37, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Brazil
10 games · 1 goalless
27'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Japan
10 games · 1 goalless
46'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market
Brazil to Score
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference—
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.21
Marathonbet
—
No Diff
No
No Difference—
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
4.40
Marathonbet
—
No Diff
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 29 Jun 17:00older price · 130d ago
Market
Japan to Score
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference—
Estimate
1.67
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathonbet
—
No Diff
No
No Difference—
Estimate
2.23
Pinnacle
2.19
Marathonbet
—
No Diff
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 29 Jun 17:00older price · 130d agoPinnacleas of 29 Jun 09:30older price · 131d ago
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