Group · Match 48FIFA World Cup 2026
Colombia
Manager: Néstor Gabriel Lorenzo
FT1 – 0
Congo DR
Manager: Sébastien Desabre
76' D. Muñoz
Guadalajara Stadium · Wednesday, 24 June 2026 · 03:00 · FT · Colombia won after full-time.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
4.10
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
-44.3%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.34
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
+23.8%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 23 Jun 23:45older price · 136d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds2.40vs book · Bet3652.20STATS DIFF -8.4%
50
Colombia
50% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
6/10
33
Congo DR
33% overall · qualifying campaign
12 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
No Difference
1.41
Estimate
1.40
Pinnacle
1.36
Marathonbet
-0.7%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Below Estimate
3.50
Estimate
3.03
Pinnacle
2.96
Marathonbet
-12.9%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 23 Jun 23:45older price · 136d agoPinnacleas of 23 Jun 23:45older price · 136d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.80vs book · Pinnacle1.40STATS DIFF -22.2%
61
Colombia
61% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
8/10
50
Congo DR
50% overall · qualifying campaign
12 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +2.8% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
No Difference
2.20
Estimate
2.24
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
+2.8%
Below Bar
Under 2.5
Below Estimate
1.84
Estimate
1.70
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
-7.3%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 23 Jun 23:45older price · 136d agoPinnacleas of 23 Jun 23:45older price · 136d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds3.00vs book · Pinnacle2.24STATS DIFF -25.3%
50
Colombia
50% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
7/10
17
Congo DR
17% overall · qualifying campaign
12 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
2/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate
4.20
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
3.94
Marathonbet
-3.9%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Below Estimate
1.32
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.22
Marathonbet
-5.4%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 23 Jun 23:45older price · 136d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds4.49vs book · Marathonbet3.94STATS DIFF -12.3%
28
Colombia
28% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
17
Congo DR
17% overall · qualifying campaign
12 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
2/10
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 24, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Colombia
10 games · 1 goalless
20'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Congo DR
10 games · 0 goalless
27'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

Colombia to Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +4.5% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference
1.13
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.15
Marathonbet
+4.5%
Below Bar
No
Below Estimate
8.80
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
5.45
Marathonbet
-36.6%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 23 Jun 23:45older price · 136d ago
Market

Congo DR to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
3.60
Estimate
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathonbet
-45.1%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.40
Estimate
1.87
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
+38.2%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 23 Jun 23:45older price · 136d agoPinnacleas of 23 Jun 09:31older price · 137d ago
Group KView group
TeamPLWDL+/−GDPTSNext
1
Colombia
32104-1+37
2
Portugal
31206-1+55
3
Congo DR
31114-3+14
4
Uzbekistan
30032-11-90
Other Group K matches5
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