Group · Match 56FIFA World Cup 2026
Ecuador
Manager: Sebastián Beccacece
FT2 – 1
Germany
Manager: Julian Nagelsmann
9' N. Angulo77' G. Plata
2' L. Sané
New York New Jersey Stadium · Thursday, 25 June 2026 · 21:00 · FT · Ecuador won after full-time.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +4.1% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
1.98
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
-11.5%
Below Est.
No
No Difference
2.04
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.05
Bet365
+4.1%
Below Bar
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 25 Jun 19:45older price · 134d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds5.99vs book · Bet3651.70STATS DIFF -71.6%
17
Ecuador
17% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
1/10
17
Germany
17% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
3/8
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate
1.41
Estimate
1.26
Pinnacle
1.16
Marathonbet
-15.3%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Above Estimate
3.50
Estimate
3.91
Pinnacle
4.30
Marathonbet
+26.5%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 25 Jun 19:45older price · 134d agoPinnacleas of 25 Jun 19:45older price · 134d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.90vs book · Pinnacle1.26STATS DIFF -33.5%
22
Ecuador
22% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
2/10
83
Germany
83% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
7/8
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate
2.20
Estimate
1.66
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
-24.8%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
Above Estimate
1.84
Estimate
2.31
Pinnacle
2.30
Bet365
+28.5%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 25 Jun 19:45older price · 134d agoPinnacleas of 25 Jun 19:45older price · 134d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.77vs book · Pinnacle1.66STATS DIFF -40.1%
22
Ecuador
22% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
2/10
50
Germany
50% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
5/8
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate
4.20
Estimate
2.70
Pinnacle
2.51
Marathonbet
-38.8%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Above Estimate
1.32
Estimate
1.49
Pinnacle
1.44
Marathonbet
+12.5%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 25 Jun 19:45older price · 134d agoPinnacleas of 25 Jun 19:45older price · 134d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds3.60vs book · Pinnacle2.70STATS DIFF -24.9%
6
Ecuador
6% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
1/10
50
Germany
50% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
4/8
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 31, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Ecuador
10 games · 5 goalless
41'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Germany
8 games · 0 goalless
24'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

Ecuador to Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +2.9% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference
1.44
Estimate
1.54
Pinnacle
1.44
Marathonbet
+2.9%
Below Bar
No
Below Estimate
3.30
Estimate
2.52
Pinnacle
2.57
Marathonbet
-19.7%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 25 Jun 19:45older price · 134d agoPinnacleas of 25 Jun 09:30older price · 135d ago
Market

Germany to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
1.38
Estimate
1.20
Pinnacle
1.09
Marathonbet
-18.7%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
3.70
Estimate
4.50
Pinnacle
6.20
Marathonbet
+72.2%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 25 Jun 19:45older price · 134d agoPinnacleas of 25 Jun 09:30older price · 135d ago
Group EView group
TeamPLWDL+/−GDPTSNext
1
Germany
320110-4+66—
2
Côte d'Ivoire
32014-2+26—
3
Ecuador
31112-204—
4
Curacao
30121-9-81—
Other Group E matches5
Upcoming matchesNext 6
No upcoming fixtures.
All GroupsA–L
ABCDEFGHIJKL
Player PropsStandout shot / SOT / card prices