Group · Match 22FIFA World Cup 2026
England
Manager: Thomas Tuchel
FT4 – 2
Croatia
Manager: Zlatko Dalić
12' H. Kane (P)42' H. Kane47' J. Bellingham85' M. Rashford
36' M. Baturina45+5' P. Musa
Dallas Stadium · Wednesday, 17 June 2026 · 21:00 · FT · England won after full-time.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
2.06
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
-2.0%
Below Est.
No
Below Estimate
1.96
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.80
Bet365
-5.8%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 2 Jun 12:10older price · 157d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds5.33vs book · Bet3651.95STATS DIFF -63.4%
0
England
0% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
0/8
38
Croatia
38% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
3/8
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate
1.41
Estimate
1.35
Pinnacle
1.31
Marathonbet
-4.4%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Below Estimate
3.50
Estimate
3.29
Pinnacle
3.10
Marathonbet
-8.8%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 17 Jun 20:16older price · 142d agoPinnacleas of 17 Jun 20:16older price · 142d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.23vs book · Pinnacle1.35STATS DIFF +9.7%
88
England
88% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
7/8
75
Croatia
75% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
6/8
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate
2.20
Estimate
2.11
Pinnacle
2.10
Bet365
-1.9%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
Below Estimate
1.84
Estimate
1.79
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
-3.9%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 17 Jun 20:16older price · 142d agoPinnacleas of 17 Jun 20:16older price · 142d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.78vs book · Pinnacle2.11STATS DIFF +18.7%
38
England
38% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
3/8
75
Croatia
75% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
6/8
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate
4.20
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
3.35
Marathonbet
-18.3%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Below Estimate
1.32
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.27
Marathonbet
-1.6%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 17 Jun 20:16older price · 142d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.29vs book · Marathonbet3.35STATS DIFF +46.6%
25
England
25% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
2/8
63
Croatia
63% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
5/8
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
16-30' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 32, landing most often in the 16-30 window.
England
8 games · 0 goalless
37'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Croatia
8 games · 1 goalless
26'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

England to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
1.29
Estimate
1.20
Pinnacle
1.15
Marathonbet
-8.0%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
4.60
Estimate
4.51
Pinnacle
4.70
Marathonbet
+6.8%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 17 Jun 20:16older price · 142d agoPinnacleas of 17 Jun 09:30older price · 143d ago
Market

Croatia to Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +4.5% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference
1.60
Estimate
1.69
Pinnacle
1.62
Marathonbet
+4.5%
Below Bar
No
Below Estimate
2.70
Estimate
2.19
Pinnacle
2.16
Marathonbet
-17.6%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 17 Jun 20:16older price · 142d agoPinnacleas of 17 Jun 09:30older price · 143d ago
Group LView group
TeamPLWDL+/−GDPTSNext
1
England
32106-2+47
2
Croatia
32015-506
3
Ghana
31112-204
4
Panama
30030-4-40
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