Group · Match 17FIFA World Cup 2026
France
Manager: Didier Deschamps
FT3 – 1
Senegal
Manager: Pape Thiaw
66' K. Mbappé82' B. Barcola90+6' K. Mbappé
90+5' I. Mbaye
New York New Jersey Stadium · Tuesday, 16 June 2026 · 20:00 · FT · France won after full-time.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
2.74
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
-26.7%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.58
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
+13.6%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 16 Jun 19:15older price · 143d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds2.86vs book · Bet3651.95STATS DIFF -31.8%
50
France
50% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 6
3/6
20
Senegal
20% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
2/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate
1.37
Estimate
1.28
Pinnacle
1.21
Marathonbet
-9.0%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Above Estimate
3.80
Estimate
3.89
Pinnacle
4.05
Marathonbet
+11.0%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 16 Jun 19:15older price · 143d agoPinnacleas of 16 Jun 19:15older price · 143d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.18vs book · Pinnacle1.28STATS DIFF +8.8%
100
France
100% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 6
6/6
70
Senegal
70% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
7/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate
2.08
Estimate
1.77
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
-14.9%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
Above Estimate
1.94
Estimate
2.14
Pinnacle
2.10
Bet365
+11.7%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 16 Jun 19:15older price · 143d agoPinnacleas of 16 Jun 19:15older price · 143d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.62vs book · Pinnacle1.77STATS DIFF +9.1%
83
France
83% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 6
5/6
40
Senegal
40% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate
3.80
Estimate
2.89
Pinnacle
2.75
Marathonbet
-25.7%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Above Estimate
1.37
Estimate
1.43
Pinnacle
1.41
Marathonbet
+6.0%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 16 Jun 19:15older price · 143d agoPinnacleas of 16 Jun 19:15older price · 143d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.22vs book · Pinnacle2.89STATS DIFF +30.0%
50
France
50% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 6
3/6
40
Senegal
40% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
31-45+' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 28, landing most often in the 31-45+ window.
France
6 games · 0 goalless
29'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Senegal
10 games · 2 goalless
28'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

France to Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
1.15
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.10
Marathonbet
-1.8%
Below Est.
No
Below Estimate
8.00
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
6.95
Marathonbet
-10.9%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 16 Jun 19:15older price · 143d ago
Market

Senegal to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
2.40
Estimate
1.75
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathonbet
-27.6%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.73
Estimate
2.10
Pinnacle
2.19
Marathonbet
+30.4%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 16 Jun 19:15older price · 143d agoPinnacleas of 16 Jun 09:30older price · 144d ago
Group IView group
TeamPLWDL+/−GDPTSNext
1
France
330010-2+89
2
Norway
32018-7+16
3
Senegal
31028-6+23
4
Iraq
30031-12-110
Other Group I matches5
Upcoming matchesNext 6
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