Group · Match 18FIFA World Cup 2026
Iraq
Manager: Graham Arnold
FT1 – 4
Norway
Manager: Ståle Solbakken
39' A. Hussein
29' E. Haaland43' E. Haaland76' L. Østigård90+6' A. Hussein (OG)
Boston Stadium · Tuesday, 16 June 2026 · 23:00 · FT · Norway won after full-time.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
3.65
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.25
Bet365
-36.6%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.39
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
+16.3%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 2 Jun 12:10older price · 157d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds2.35vs book · Bet3652.25STATS DIFF -4.4%
35
Iraq
35% overall · qualifying campaign
20 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
50
Norway
50% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
4/8
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate
1.41
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.17
Marathonbet
-14.6%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Above Estimate
3.50
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
4.65
Marathonbet
+36.8%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 16 Jun 22:15older price · 143d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.45vs book · Marathonbet1.17STATS DIFF -19.6%
50
Iraq
50% overall · qualifying campaign
20 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
6/10
88
Norway
88% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
7/8
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate
2.20
Estimate
1.64
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
-26.6%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
Above Estimate
1.84
Estimate
2.34
Pinnacle
2.30
Bet365
+28.5%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 16 Jun 22:15older price · 143d agoPinnacleas of 16 Jun 22:15older price · 143d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.63vs book · Pinnacle1.64STATS DIFF +0.4%
35
Iraq
35% overall · qualifying campaign
20 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
88
Norway
88% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
7/8
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate
4.20
Estimate
2.61
Pinnacle
2.49
Marathonbet
-39.3%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Above Estimate
1.32
Estimate
1.52
Pinnacle
1.49
Marathonbet
+15.5%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 16 Jun 22:15older price · 143d agoPinnacleas of 16 Jun 22:15older price · 143d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.00vs book · Pinnacle2.61STATS DIFF +30.5%
25
Iraq
25% overall · qualifying campaign
20 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
1/10
75
Norway
75% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
6/8
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 35, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Iraq
10 games · 1 goalless
44'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Norway
8 games · 0 goalless
26'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

Iraq to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
3.20
Estimate
2.26
Pinnacle
2.24
Marathonbet
-27.7%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.46
Estimate
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Marathonbet
+16.2%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 16 Jun 22:15older price · 143d agoPinnacleas of 16 Jun 09:31older price · 144d ago
Market

Norway to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
1.14
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.04
Marathonbet
-6.3%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
8.40
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
10.75
Marathonbet
+31.1%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 16 Jun 22:15older price · 143d ago
Group IView group
TeamPLWDL+/−GDPTSNext
1
France
330010-2+89
2
Norway
32018-7+16
3
Senegal
31028-6+23
4
Iraq
30031-12-110
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