Group · Match 28FIFA World Cup 2026
Mexico
Manager: Javier Aguirre Onaindía
FT1 – 0
Korea Republic
Manager: Myung-Bo Hong
50' L. Romo
Guadalajara Stadium · Friday, 19 June 2026 · 02:00 · FT · Mexico won after full-time.
Market
Both Teams To Score
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +0.6% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate2.20
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
-8.9%
Below Est.
No
No Difference1.85
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.80
Bet365
+0.6%
Below Bar
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 18 Jun 22:46older price · 141d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds2.28vs book · Bet3651.95STATS DIFF -14.6%
Mexico: no qualifying campaign data
Korea Republic
44% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
7/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 1.5
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate1.44
Estimate
1.39
Pinnacle
1.35
Marathonbet
-3.6%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Below Estimate3.35
Estimate
3.13
Pinnacle
2.90
Marathonbet
-10.8%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 18 Jun 22:46older price · 141d agoPinnacleas of 18 Jun 22:46older price · 141d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.14vs book · Pinnacle1.39STATS DIFF +21.6%
Mexico: no qualifying campaign data
Korea Republic
88% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
10/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 2.5
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate2.34
Estimate
2.24
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
-2.7%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
Below Estimate1.76
Estimate
1.70
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
-2.9%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 18 Jun 22:46older price · 141d agoPinnacleas of 18 Jun 22:46older price · 141d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.00vs book · Pinnacle2.24STATS DIFF +12.0%
Mexico: no qualifying campaign data
Korea Republic
50% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 3.5
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate4.60
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
3.74
Marathonbet
-15.0%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Below Estimate1.29
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.22
Marathonbet
-2.4%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 18 Jun 22:46older price · 141d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.67vs book · Marathonbet3.74STATS DIFF +40.3%
Mexico: no qualifying campaign data
Korea Republic
38% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Goal timing
When does the first goal arrive?
First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 29, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Mexico
1 games · 0 goalless
9'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Korea Republic
10 games · 0 goalless
31'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market
Mexico to Score
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference1.27
Estimate
1.26
Pinnacle
1.24
Marathonbet
—
No Diff
No
Below Estimate4.80
Estimate
3.83
Pinnacle
3.64
Marathonbet
-20.9%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 18 Jun 22:46older price · 141d agoPinnacleas of 18 Jun 09:31older price · 142d ago
Market
Korea Republic to Score
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate1.75
Estimate
1.56
Pinnacle
1.50
Marathonbet
-11.8%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate2.34
Estimate
2.47
Pinnacle
2.41
Marathonbet
+5.7%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 18 Jun 22:46older price · 141d agoPinnacleas of 18 Jun 09:31older price · 142d ago
Group AView group
| Team | PL | W | D | L | +/− | GD | PTS | Next | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6-0 | +6 | 9 | |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | -1 | 4 | |
| 3 | Korea Republic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2-3 | -1 | 3 | |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2-6 | -4 | 1 |
Other Group A matches5
Upcoming matchesNext 6
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