Group · Match 1FIFA World Cup 2026
Mexico
Manager: Javier Aguirre Onaindía
FT2 – 0
South Africa
Manager: Hugo Broos
9' J. Quiñones67' R. Jiménez
Mexico City Stadium · Thursday, 11 June 2026 · 20:00 · FT · Mexico won after full-time.
Match odds
Corner Handicap
Latest price · implied probability
Source
BET365
OutcomePriceImplied
11
1.9052%22
2.2045%Tie
7.5013%Tie 22
7.5013%Source: bet365 · 4 outcomes · informational only
Match odds
Corners Race
Latest price · implied probability
Source
BET365
OutcomePriceImplied
11
2.6038%22
9.5011%Neither
23.004%Source: bet365 · 3 outcomes · informational only
Match forecast
Total corners · model prediction
Poisson on the combined campaign baseline · Sanstari estimate per band
Model state
6 TO 8 RANGE
Most likely band is 6 to 8 corners. Range chips show price vs our estimate.
—
Mexico · for
qualifying, per game
8.5
Total corners · projected
6.4
South Africa · for
qualifying, per game
Range market · price vs our estimate · tap to dutch
Tap two adjacent ranges to combine them into one dutched price.
Market
Asian Total Corners 9
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 9
Below Estimate2.52
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
-18.0%
Below Est.
Under 9
Above Estimate1.67
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.80
Bet365
+11.1%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 9 Jun 20:37older price · 150d ago
Market
Asian Handicap Corners
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Mexico -0.5
Below Estimate23.50
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
-91.4%
Below Est.
South Africa +0.5
Above Estimate1.05
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.82
Bet365
+78.4%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 9 Jun 20:37older price · 150d ago
Match odds
Corner Handicap
Latest price · implied probability
Source
BET365
OutcomePriceImplied
11
1.9052%22
2.2045%Tie
7.5013%Tie 22
7.5013%Source: bet365 · 4 outcomes · informational only
Match odds
Corners Race
Latest price · implied probability
Source
BET365
OutcomePriceImplied
11
2.6038%22
9.5011%Neither
23.004%Source: bet365 · 3 outcomes · informational only
Season shape
Team corner averages
Bilateral comparison · qualifying campaign
Scope
OVERALL
MexicoSouth Africa
Corners for / g
Corners against / g
Match corners / g
Hit rates · qualifying campaign
Q—Team corners O3.5Q80%
Q—Team corners O4.5Q70%
Q—Match corners O8.5Q30%
Q—Match corners O9.5Q30%
Q—Match corners O10.5Q30%
Differential profile
Corner differential · for vs against
Net corners per game · qualifying campaign
Net difference
+4.3 · SOUTH AFRICA
Mexico
—
net per game
South Africa
+4.3
net per game
Group AView group
| Team | PL | W | D | L | +/− | GD | PTS | Next | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6-0 | +6 | 9 | |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | -1 | 4 | |
| 3 | Korea Republic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2-3 | -1 | 3 | |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2-6 | -4 | 1 |
Other Group A matches5
Upcoming matchesNext 6
No upcoming fixtures.