Group · Match 1FIFA World Cup 2026
Mexico
Manager: Javier Aguirre Onaindía
FT2 – 0
South Africa
Manager: Hugo Broos
9' J. Quiñones67' R. Jiménez
Mexico City Stadium · Thursday, 11 June 2026 · 20:00 · FT · Mexico won after full-time.
Market
Both Teams To Score
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate4.70
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.37
Bet365
-48.5%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate1.28
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.53
Bet365
+23.4%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 11 Jun 19:29older price · 148d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds2.50vs book · Bet3652.37STATS DIFF -5.2%
Mexico: no qualifying campaign data
South Africa
40% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 1.5
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate1.68
Estimate
1.44
Pinnacle
1.36
Marathonbet
-16.6%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Above Estimate2.50
Estimate
2.94
Pinnacle
2.86
Marathonbet
+18.2%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 11 Jun 19:29older price · 148d agoPinnacleas of 11 Jun 19:29older price · 148d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.11vs book · Pinnacle1.44STATS DIFF +29.6%
Mexico: no qualifying campaign data
South Africa
90% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
9/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 2.5
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate3.10
Estimate
2.30
Pinnacle
2.10
Bet365
-30.0%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
Above Estimate1.48
Estimate
1.68
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
+19.4%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 11 Jun 19:29older price · 148d agoPinnacleas of 11 Jun 19:29older price · 148d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.50vs book · Pinnacle2.30STATS DIFF -8.0%
Mexico: no qualifying campaign data
South Africa
40% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 3.5
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate7.00
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
4.00
Marathonbet
-41.2%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Above Estimate1.17
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.20
Marathonbet
+5.3%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 11 Jun 19:29older price · 148d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds10.00vs book · Marathonbet4.00STATS DIFF -60.0%
Mexico: no qualifying campaign data
South Africa
10% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
1/10
Goal timing
When does the first goal arrive?
First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 22, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Mexico: no qualifying campaign data
South Africa
10 games · 1 goalless
22'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market
Mexico to Score
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate1.23
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.14
Marathonbet
-4.2%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate5.50
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
5.80
Marathonbet
+7.4%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 11 Jun 19:29older price · 148d ago
Market
South Africa to Score
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate3.90
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.17
Marathonbet
-42.1%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate1.35
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.69
Marathonbet
+28.0%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 11 Jun 19:29older price · 148d ago
Group AView group
| Team | PL | W | D | L | +/− | GD | PTS | Next | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6-0 | +6 | 9 | |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | -1 | 4 | |
| 3 | Korea Republic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2-3 | -1 | 3 | |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2-6 | -4 | 1 |
Other Group A matches5
Upcoming matchesNext 6
No upcoming fixtures.