Group · Match 11FIFA World Cup 2026
Netherlands
Manager: Ronald Koeman
FT2 – 2
Japan
Manager: Hajime Moriyasu
51' V. Dijk64' C. Summerville
57' K. Nakamura89' D. Kamada
Dallas Stadium · Sunday, 14 June 2026 · 21:00 · FT · Game ended in draw.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +2.6% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
2.00
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.80
Bet365
-7.2%
Below Est.
No
No Difference
2.02
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
+2.6%
Below Bar
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 14 Jun 20:15older price · 145d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds4.00vs book · Bet3651.80STATS DIFF -55.0%
38
Netherlands
38% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
3/8
13
Japan
13% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
2/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate
1.41
Estimate
1.34
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
-3.6%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Below Estimate
3.50
Estimate
3.39
Pinnacle
3.18
Marathonbet
-6.5%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 14 Jun 20:15older price · 145d agoPinnacleas of 14 Jun 20:15older price · 145d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.10vs book · Pinnacle1.34STATS DIFF +21.5%
100
Netherlands
100% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
8/8
81
Japan
81% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
8/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +0.6% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate
2.20
Estimate
2.08
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
-6.5%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
No Difference
1.84
Estimate
1.81
Pinnacle
1.80
Bet365
+0.6%
Below Bar
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 14 Jun 20:15older price · 145d agoPinnacleas of 14 Jun 20:15older price · 145d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.60vs book · Pinnacle2.08STATS DIFF +30.0%
63
Netherlands
63% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
5/8
63
Japan
63% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate
4.20
Estimate
3.57
Pinnacle
3.44
Marathonbet
-16.1%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
No Difference
1.32
Estimate
1.32
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
-0.8%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 14 Jun 20:15older price · 145d agoPinnacleas of 14 Jun 20:15older price · 145d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.68vs book · Pinnacle3.57STATS DIFF +112.1%
63
Netherlands
63% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
5/8
56
Japan
56% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 29, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Netherlands
8 games · 0 goalless
17'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Japan
10 games · 1 goalless
41'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

Netherlands to Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +1.2% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
1.33
Estimate
1.22
Pinnacle
1.24
Marathonbet
-3.9%
Below Est.
No
No Difference
4.20
Estimate
4.25
Pinnacle
4.05
Marathonbet
+1.2%
Below Bar
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 14 Jun 20:15older price · 145d agoPinnacleas of 14 Jun 09:30older price · 146d ago
Market

Japan to Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference
1.51
Estimate
1.45
Pinnacle
1.47
Marathonbet
—
No Diff
No
Below Estimate
2.98
Estimate
2.78
Pinnacle
2.68
Marathonbet
-6.9%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 14 Jun 20:15older price · 145d agoPinnacleas of 14 Jun 09:30older price · 146d ago
Group FView group
TeamPLWDL+/−GDPTSNext
1
Netherlands
321010-4+67
2
Japan
31207-3+45
3
Sweden
31117-704
4
Tunisia
30032-12-100
Other Group F matches5
Upcoming matchesNext 6
No upcoming fixtures.
All GroupsA–L
ABCDEFGHIJKL
Player PropsStandout shot / SOT / card prices