Group · Match 35FIFA World Cup 2026
Netherlands
Manager: Ronald Koeman
FT5 – 1
Sweden
Manager: Graham Potter
5' B. Brobbey17' B. Brobbey47' C. Gakpo54' C. Gakpo89' C. Summerville
59' A. Elanga
Houston Stadium · Saturday, 20 June 2026 · 18:00 · FT · Netherlands won after full-time.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
2.76
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
-39.9%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.58
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
+43.8%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 20 Jun 16:31older price · 139d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds2.00vs book · Bet3651.61STATS DIFF -19.5%
38
Netherlands
38% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
4/9
63
Sweden
63% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
6/9
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate
1.41
Estimate
1.27
Pinnacle
1.17
Marathonbet
-14.6%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Above Estimate
3.50
Estimate
3.86
Pinnacle
4.60
Marathonbet
+35.3%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 20 Jun 16:31older price · 139d agoPinnacleas of 20 Jun 16:31older price · 139d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.07vs book · Pinnacle1.27STATS DIFF +19.1%
100
Netherlands
100% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
9/9
88
Sweden
88% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
8/9
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate
2.20
Estimate
1.63
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
-24.8%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
Above Estimate
1.84
Estimate
2.35
Pinnacle
2.30
Bet365
+28.5%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 20 Jun 16:31older price · 139d agoPinnacleas of 20 Jun 16:31older price · 139d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.78vs book · Pinnacle1.63STATS DIFF -8.3%
63
Netherlands
63% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
6/9
50
Sweden
50% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
5/9
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate
4.20
Estimate
2.56
Pinnacle
2.46
Marathonbet
-40.0%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Above Estimate
1.32
Estimate
1.54
Pinnacle
1.50
Marathonbet
+16.3%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 20 Jun 16:31older price · 139d agoPinnacleas of 20 Jun 16:31older price · 139d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.78vs book · Pinnacle2.56STATS DIFF +44.0%
63
Netherlands
63% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
6/9
50
Sweden
50% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
5/9
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 24, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Netherlands
9 games · 0 goalless
20'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Sweden
9 games · 0 goalless
28'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

Netherlands to Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
1.17
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.12
Marathonbet
-1.8%
Below Est.
No
Below Estimate
7.00
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
6.30
Marathonbet
-7.4%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 20 Jun 16:31older price · 139d ago
Market

Sweden to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
2.36
Estimate
1.43
Pinnacle
1.42
Marathonbet
-38.3%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.75
Estimate
2.85
Pinnacle
2.88
Marathonbet
+69.4%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 20 Jun 16:31older price · 139d agoPinnacleas of 20 Jun 09:30older price · 140d ago
Group FView group
TeamPLWDL+/−GDPTSNext
1
Netherlands
321010-4+67
2
Japan
31207-3+45
3
Sweden
31117-704
4
Tunisia
30032-12-100
Other Group F matches5
Upcoming matchesNext 6
No upcoming fixtures.
All GroupsA–L
ABCDEFGHIJKL
Player PropsStandout shot / SOT / card prices