R16 · Match 89FIFA World Cup 2026
Paraguay
Manager: Gustavo Alfaro
FT0 – 1
France
Manager: Didier Deschamps
70' K. Mbappé (P)
Philadelphia Stadium · Saturday, 4 July 2026 · 22:00 · FT · France won after full-time.
Officiating
Referee profile
Sample
NO REFEREE
I. Tantashev
Market
Total Cards Over/Under 2.5
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Above Estimate1.48
Estimate
2.01
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
+38.9%
Above Est.
Under 2.5
Below Estimate3.15
Estimate
1.82
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
-43.6%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 4 Jul 21:30older price · 125d agoPinnacleas of 4 Jul 21:30older price · 125d ago
Market
Total Cards Over/Under 3.5
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Above Estimate2.16
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.65
Unibet
+26.2%
Above Est.
Under 3.5
Below Estimate1.87
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.40
Unibet
-23.1%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Unibetas of 4 Jul 21:30older price · 125d ago
Market
Total Cards Over/Under 4.5
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 4.5
Below Estimate3.65
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.60
Unibet
-26.8%
Below Est.
Under 4.5
Above Estimate1.38
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.42
Unibet
+6.0%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Unibetas of 4 Jul 21:30older price · 125d ago
Market
Both Teams To Receive a Card
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Above Estimate1.39
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.10
Bet365
+55.6%
Above Est.
No
Below Estimate3.65
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
-53.2%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 4 Jul 21:30older price · 125d ago
Market
Asian Handicap Cards +0
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Paraguay +0
No Difference1.39
Estimate
1.24
Pinnacle
—
Soft
—
No Diff
France +0
No Difference3.60
Estimate
3.97
Pinnacle
—
Soft
—
No Diff
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Pinnacleas of 4 Jul 21:30older price · 125d ago
Match odds
Player to be Booked
Latest price · implied probability
Source
BET365
OutcomePriceImplied
Gustavo Gomez
3.75—Alexandro Maidana
3.75—Andres Cubas
3.75—Diego Gomez
4.00—Damian Bobadilla
4.33—Juan Caceres
4.33—Matias Galarza
4.33—Fabian Balbuena
4.75—Gustavo Velazquez
4.75—Omar Alderete
4.75—Alejandro Romero
4.75—Junior Alonso
5.50—Jose Canale
5.50—Alex Arce
5.50—Braian Ojeda
5.50—Ramon Sosa
5.50—Prado Mauricio
5.50—Antonio Sanabria
6.50—Gabriel Avalos
6.50—Miguel Almiron
6.50—Julio Enciso
6.50—Gustavo Caballero
6.50—Isidro Pitta
6.50—Lucas Hernandez
7.00—Theo Hernandez
7.50—Kouadio Kone
7.50—Adrien Rabiot
8.00—Aurelien Tchouameni
8.00—Dayot Upamecano
9.00—Ibrahima Konate
9.00—Warren Zaire Emery
9.00—Booked
9.0011%Ngolo Kante
9.00—Malo Gusto
10.00—Maghnes Akliouche
10.00—Lucas Digne
11.00—William Saliba
11.00—Desire Doue
11.00—Gaston Olveira
12.00—Orlando Gill
12.00—Gatito Fernandez
12.00—Rayan Cherki
13.00—Jules Kounde
15.00—Maxence Lacroix
15.00—Michael Olise
15.00—Bradley Barcola
15.00—Ousmane Dembele
17.00—Kylian Mbappe
17.00—Jean-Philippe Mateta
17.00—Marcus Thuram
17.00—Brice Samba
21.00—Mike Maignan
21.00—Robin Risser
29.00—Source: bet365 · 53 outcomes · informational only
Match odds
1st Player Booked
Latest price · implied probability
Source
BET365
OutcomePriceImplied
Gustavo Gomez
8.00—Alexandro Maidana
8.00—Andres Cubas
8.00—Diego Gomez
9.00—Damian Bobadilla
9.50—Matias Galarza
9.50—Juan Caceres
9.50—Fabian Balbuena
11.00—Gustavo Velazquez
11.00—Omar Alderete
11.00—Alejandro Romero
11.00—Junior Alonso
13.00—Jose Canale
13.00—Alex Arce
13.00—Braian Ojeda
13.00—Ramon Sosa
13.00—Prado Mauricio
13.00—Antonio Sanabria
15.00—Gabriel Avalos
15.00—Miguel Almiron
15.00—Julio Enciso
15.00—Gustavo Caballero
15.00—Isidro Pitta
15.00—Lucas Hernandez
17.00—Adrien Rabiot
19.00—Theo Hernandez
19.00—Aurelien Tchouameni
19.00—Kouadio Kone
19.00—Dayot Upamecano
21.00—Ibrahima Konate
21.00—Warren Zaire Emery
21.00—1st Card
21.005%Ngolo Kante
21.00—Malo Gusto
23.00—Maghnes Akliouche
23.00—Lucas Digne
26.00—William Saliba
26.00—Desire Doue
26.00—Gaston Olveira
29.00—Rayan Cherki
29.00—Orlando Gill
29.00—Gatito Fernandez
29.00—Jules Kounde
34.00—Maxence Lacroix
34.00—Michael Olise
34.00—Bradley Barcola
34.00—Ousmane Dembele
41.00—Kylian Mbappe
41.00—Jean-Philippe Mateta
41.00—Marcus Thuram
41.00—Brice Samba
51.00—Mike Maignan
51.00—Robin Risser
81.00—Source: bet365 · 53 outcomes · informational only
Match events
Cards in this match
Total cards · Paraguay 0 / France 3
State
FULL-TIME
19'Yellow cardFrance
Bradley Barcola
Foul
81'Yellow cardFrance
Manu Koné
Foul
90+7'Yellow cardFrance
Michael Olise
Argument
Season shape
Team card averages
Bilateral comparison · qualifying campaign
Scope
OVERALL
ParaguayFrance
Team cards / g
Match cards / g
Hit rates · qualifying campaign
Q67%Team cards Over 1.5Q17%
Q33%Team cards Over 2.5Q17%
Q61%Match cards Over 3.5Q17%
Q78%Both teams cardedQ67%
Overall
Paraguay
67%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
61%
Match O3.5
France
17%
Over 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
17%
Match O3.5
Upcoming matchesNext 6
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