R16 · Match 89FIFA World Cup 2026
Paraguay
Manager: Gustavo Alfaro
FT0 – 1
France
Manager: Didier Deschamps
70' K. Mbappé (P)
Philadelphia Stadium · Saturday, 4 July 2026 · 22:00 · FT · France won after full-time.
Market
Both Teams To Score
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference—
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.37
Bet365
—
No Diff
No
No Difference—
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.53
Bet365
—
No Diff
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 4 Jul 21:30older price · 125d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds2.77vs book · Bet3652.37STATS DIFF -14.4%
Paraguay
22% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
3/10
France
50% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 1.5
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
No Difference—
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.15
Marathonbet
—
No Diff
Under 1.5
No Difference—
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
4.30
Marathonbet
—
No Diff
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 4 Jul 21:30older price · 125d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.56vs book · Marathonbet1.15STATS DIFF -26.5%
Paraguay
28% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
France
100% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
10/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 2.5
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
No Difference—
Estimate
1.68
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
—
No Diff
Under 2.5
No Difference—
Estimate
2.27
Pinnacle
2.30
Bet365
—
No Diff
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 4 Jul 21:30older price · 125d agoPinnacleas of 4 Jul 21:30older price · 125d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.90vs book · Pinnacle1.68STATS DIFF -11.4%
Paraguay
22% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
3/10
France
83% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
9/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 3.5
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
No Difference—
Estimate
2.67
Pinnacle
2.59
Marathonbet
—
No Diff
Under 3.5
No Difference—
Estimate
1.48
Pinnacle
1.50
Marathonbet
—
No Diff
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 4 Jul 21:30older price · 125d agoPinnacleas of 4 Jul 21:30older price · 125d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds3.27vs book · Pinnacle2.67STATS DIFF -18.4%
Paraguay
11% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
3/10
France
50% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Goal timing
When does the first goal arrive?
First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 29, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Paraguay
10 games · 2 goalless
28'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
France
10 games · 0 goalless
31'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market
Paraguay to Score
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference—
Estimate
2.35
Pinnacle
2.28
Marathonbet
—
No Diff
No
No Difference—
Estimate
1.61
Pinnacle
1.63
Marathonbet
—
No Diff
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 4 Jul 21:30older price · 125d agoPinnacleas of 4 Jul 09:31older price · 125d ago
Market
France to Score
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference—
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.04
Marathonbet
—
No Diff
No
No Difference—
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
10.50
Marathonbet
—
No Diff
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 4 Jul 21:30older price · 125d ago
Upcoming matchesNext 6
No upcoming fixtures.