Group · Match 23FIFA World Cup 2026
Portugal
Manager: Roberto Martínez Montoliú
FT1 – 1
Congo DR
Manager: Sébastien Desabre
6' J. Neves
45+5' Y. Wissa
Houston Stadium · Wednesday, 17 June 2026 · 18:00 · FT · Game ended in draw.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
6.20
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.05
Bet365
-65.8%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.20
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
+45.3%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 2 Jun 12:10older price · 157d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds2.40vs book · Bet3652.05STATS DIFF -14.6%
50
Portugal
50% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 6
3/6
33
Congo DR
33% overall · qualifying campaign
12 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
3/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate
1.40
Estimate
1.27
Pinnacle
1.22
Marathonbet
-10.3%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Above Estimate
3.55
Estimate
3.92
Pinnacle
3.75
Marathonbet
+8.7%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 17 Jun 17:30older price · 142d agoPinnacleas of 17 Jun 17:30older price · 142d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.50vs book · Pinnacle1.27STATS DIFF -15.4%
83
Portugal
83% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 6
5/6
50
Congo DR
50% overall · qualifying campaign
12 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate
2.18
Estimate
1.81
Pinnacle
1.80
Bet365
-15.1%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
Above Estimate
1.86
Estimate
2.08
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
+10.5%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 17 Jun 17:30older price · 142d agoPinnacleas of 17 Jun 17:30older price · 142d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.40vs book · Pinnacle1.81STATS DIFF -24.5%
67
Portugal
67% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 6
4/6
17
Congo DR
17% overall · qualifying campaign
12 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
2/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate
4.10
Estimate
3.03
Pinnacle
2.81
Marathonbet
-28.9%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Above Estimate
1.33
Estimate
1.40
Pinnacle
1.37
Marathonbet
+6.2%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 17 Jun 17:30older price · 142d agoPinnacleas of 17 Jun 17:30older price · 142d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.40vs book · Pinnacle3.03STATS DIFF +26.4%
67
Portugal
67% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 6
4/6
17
Congo DR
17% overall · qualifying campaign
12 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
2/10
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 31, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Portugal
6 games · 0 goalless
26'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Congo DR
10 games · 0 goalless
34'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

Portugal to Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
1.11
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.06
Marathonbet
-1.9%
Below Est.
No
Below Estimate
10.50
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
7.10
Marathonbet
-29.0%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 17 Jun 17:30older price · 142d ago
Market

Congo DR to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
5.60
Estimate
2.20
Pinnacle
2.14
Marathonbet
-60.4%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.23
Estimate
1.68
Pinnacle
1.63
Marathonbet
+37.0%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 17 Jun 17:30older price · 142d agoPinnacleas of 17 Jun 09:30older price · 143d ago
Group KView group
TeamPLWDL+/−GDPTSNext
1
Colombia
32104-1+37
2
Portugal
31206-1+55
3
Congo DR
31114-3+14
4
Uzbekistan
30032-11-90
Other Group K matches5
Upcoming matchesNext 6
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