R32 · Match 83FIFA World Cup 2026
Portugal
Manager: Roberto Martínez Montoliú
FT2 – 1
Croatia
Manager: Zlatko Dalić
68' C. Ronaldo (P)90+4' G. Ramos
53' I. Perišić
Toronto Stadium · Friday, 3 July 2026 · 00:00 · FT · Portugal won after full-time.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Officiating

Referee profile

Sample
NO REFEREE
E. Eskås
No referee has been appointed for this fixture yet.
Market

Total Cards Over/Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Above Estimate
1.72
Estimate
2.17
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
+9.6%
Above Est.
Under 2.5
Below Estimate
2.40
Estimate
1.70
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
-21.8%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 2 Jul 23:45older price · 127d agoPinnacleas of 2 Jul 23:45older price · 127d ago
Market

Total Cards Over/Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate
2.80
Estimate
2.62
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
-19.1%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Above Estimate
1.56
Estimate
1.48
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
+5.9%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 2 Jul 23:45older price · 127d agoPinnacleas of 2 Jul 23:45older price · 127d ago
Market

Total Cards Over/Under 4.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 4.5
Below Estimate
5.30
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.95
Unibet
-43.3%
Below Est.
Under 4.5
Above Estimate
1.24
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.33
Unibet
+10.8%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Unibetas of 2 Jul 23:45older price · 127d ago
Market

Both Teams To Receive a Card

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
1.92
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.80
Bet365
-3.7%
Below Est.
No
Below Estimate
2.10
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
-6.9%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 2 Jul 23:45older price · 127d ago
Market

Asian Handicap Cards +0

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Portugal +0
No Difference
1.42
Estimate
2.79
Pinnacle
—
Soft
—
No Diff
Croatia +0
No Difference
3.45
Estimate
1.43
Pinnacle
—
Soft
—
No Diff
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Pinnacleas of 2 Jul 23:45older price · 127d ago
Match odds

Player to be Booked

Latest price · implied probability
Source
BET365
OutcomePriceImplied
Booked
8.5012%
Source: bet365 · 1 outcomes · informational only
Match odds

1st Player Booked

Latest price · implied probability
Source
BET365
OutcomePriceImplied
1st Card
23.004%
Source: bet365 · 1 outcomes · informational only
Match events

Cards in this match

Total cards · Portugal 1 / Croatia 2
State
FULL-TIME
17'Yellow card
Rúben Dias 
Foul
Portugal
59'Yellow card
Luka Modrić
Foul
Croatia
90+8'Yellow card
Ivan Perišić
Argument
Croatia
Season shape

Team card averages

Bilateral comparison · qualifying campaign
Scope
OVERALL
PortugalCroatia
1.5
Team cards / g
0.9
3.7
Match cards / g
2.4
Hit rates · qualifying campaign
Q67%
Team cards Over 1.5
Q13%
Q17%
Team cards Over 2.5
Q0%
Q50%
Match cards Over 3.5
Q25%
Q67%
Both teams carded
Q38%
Overall
Portugal
67%
Over 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
0%
Over 3.5
50%
Match O3.5
Croatia
13%
Over 1.5
0%
Over 2.5
0%
Over 3.5
25%
Match O3.5
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