Group · Match 62FIFA World Cup 2026
Senegal
Manager: Pape Thiaw
FT5 – 0
Iraq
Manager: Graham Arnold
4' H. Diarra56' I. Sarr59' P. Gueye71' P. Gueye82' I. Ndiaye
Toronto Stadium · Friday, 26 June 2026 · 20:00 · FT · Senegal won after full-time.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
3.10
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.05
Bet365
-31.2%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.49
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
+17.2%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 26 Jun 18:45older price · 133d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds3.64vs book · Bet3652.05STATS DIFF -43.6%
20
Senegal
20% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
35
Iraq
35% overall · qualifying campaign
20 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate
1.41
Estimate
1.25
Pinnacle
1.11
Marathonbet
-19.0%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Above Estimate
3.50
Estimate
3.74
Pinnacle
5.15
Marathonbet
+51.5%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 26 Jun 18:45older price · 133d agoPinnacleas of 26 Jun 18:45older price · 133d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.67vs book · Pinnacle1.25STATS DIFF -25.0%
70
Senegal
70% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
8/10
50
Iraq
50% overall · qualifying campaign
20 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
7/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate
2.20
Estimate
1.51
Pinnacle
1.50
Bet365
-29.9%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
Above Estimate
1.84
Estimate
2.61
Pinnacle
2.62
Bet365
+46.4%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 26 Jun 18:45older price · 133d agoPinnacleas of 26 Jun 18:45older price · 133d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.67vs book · Pinnacle1.51STATS DIFF -43.4%
40
Senegal
40% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
35
Iraq
35% overall · qualifying campaign
20 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate
4.20
Estimate
2.29
Pinnacle
2.30
Marathonbet
-43.9%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Above Estimate
1.32
Estimate
1.64
Pinnacle
1.64
Marathonbet
+27.1%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 26 Jun 18:45older price · 133d agoPinnacleas of 26 Jun 18:45older price · 133d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds3.08vs book · Marathonbet2.30STATS DIFF -25.2%
40
Senegal
40% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
25
Iraq
25% overall · qualifying campaign
20 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
1/10
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
31-45+' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 39, landing most often in the 31-45+ window.
Senegal
10 games · 1 goalless
37'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Iraq
10 games · 1 goalless
41'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

Senegal to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
1.16
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.03
Marathonbet
-8.0%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
7.60
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
12.00
Marathonbet
+62.2%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 26 Jun 18:45older price · 133d ago
Market

Iraq to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
2.66
Estimate
1.98
Pinnacle
2.04
Marathonbet
-20.9%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.61
Estimate
1.84
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathonbet
+14.1%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 26 Jun 18:45older price · 133d agoPinnacleas of 26 Jun 09:30older price · 134d ago
Group IView group
TeamPLWDL+/−GDPTSNext
1
France
330010-2+89—
2
Norway
32018-7+16—
3
Senegal
31028-6+23—
4
Iraq
30031-12-110—
Other Group I matches5
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