Group · Match 12FIFA World Cup 2026
Sweden
Manager: Graham Potter
FT5 – 1
Tunisia
Manager: Sabri Lamouchi
7' Y. Ayari30' A. Isak59' V. Gyökeres84' M. Svanberg90+6' Y. Ayari
43' O. Rekik
Monterrey Stadium · Monday, 15 June 2026 · 03:00 · FT · Sweden won after full-time.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
2.04
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
-1.5%
Below Est.
No
Below Estimate
1.98
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
-8.9%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 14 Jun 23:30older price · 145d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds3.20vs book · Bet3651.95STATS DIFF -39.1%
63
Sweden
63% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
5/8
0
Tunisia
0% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
0/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
No Difference
1.41
Estimate
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
Marathonbet
-0.7%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Below Estimate
3.50
Estimate
3.14
Pinnacle
2.96
Marathonbet
-12.9%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 14 Jun 23:30older price · 145d agoPinnacleas of 14 Jun 23:30older price · 145d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.45vs book · Pinnacle1.38STATS DIFF -5.1%
88
Sweden
88% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
7/8
50
Tunisia
50% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +2.8% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
No Difference
2.20
Estimate
2.21
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
+2.8%
Below Bar
Under 2.5
Below Estimate
1.84
Estimate
1.72
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
-7.3%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 14 Jun 23:30older price · 145d agoPinnacleas of 14 Jun 23:30older price · 145d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.22vs book · Pinnacle2.21STATS DIFF -0.6%
50
Sweden
50% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
4/8
40
Tunisia
40% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate
4.20
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
3.75
Marathonbet
-8.5%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Below Estimate
1.32
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.24
Marathonbet
-3.9%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 14 Jun 23:30older price · 145d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.86vs book · Marathonbet3.75STATS DIFF +31.3%
50
Sweden
50% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
4/8
20
Tunisia
20% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
2/10
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 41, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Sweden
8 games · 0 goalless
30'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Tunisia
10 games · 1 goalless
51'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

Sweden to Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
1.30
Estimate
1.23
Pinnacle
1.24
Marathonbet
-1.6%
Below Est.
No
Below Estimate
4.50
Estimate
4.16
Pinnacle
4.05
Marathonbet
-8.0%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 14 Jun 23:30older price · 145d agoPinnacleas of 14 Jun 09:31older price · 146d ago
Market

Tunisia to Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +4.6% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference
1.58
Estimate
1.56
Pinnacle
1.60
Marathonbet
+4.6%
Below Bar
No
Below Estimate
2.76
Estimate
2.46
Pinnacle
2.34
Marathonbet
-12.7%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 14 Jun 23:30older price · 145d agoPinnacleas of 14 Jun 09:31older price · 146d ago
Group FView group
TeamPLWDL+/−GDPTSNext
1
Netherlands
321010-4+67
2
Japan
31207-3+45
3
Sweden
31117-704
4
Tunisia
30032-12-100
Other Group F matches5
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