Group · Match 36FIFA World Cup 2026
Tunisia
Manager: Sabri Lamouchi
FT0 – 4
Japan
Manager: Hajime Moriyasu
4' D. Kamada31' A. Ueda69' J. Ito83' A. Ueda
Monterrey Stadium · Sunday, 21 June 2026 · 05:00 · FT · Japan won after full-time.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
3.05
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.25
Bet365
-23.5%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.50
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
+7.5%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 21 Jun 03:00older price · 139d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds16.00vs book · Bet3652.25STATS DIFF -85.9%
0
Tunisia
0% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
1/10
13
Japan
13% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
3/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate
1.41
Estimate
1.36
Pinnacle
1.31
Marathonbet
-4.4%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Below Estimate
3.50
Estimate
3.26
Pinnacle
3.24
Marathonbet
-4.7%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 21 Jun 03:00older price · 139d agoPinnacleas of 21 Jun 03:00older price · 139d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.52vs book · Pinnacle1.36STATS DIFF -10.7%
50
Tunisia
50% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
81
Japan
81% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
8/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate
2.20
Estimate
2.12
Pinnacle
2.10
Bet365
-1.9%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
Below Estimate
1.84
Estimate
1.78
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
-3.9%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 21 Jun 03:00older price · 139d agoPinnacleas of 21 Jun 03:00older price · 139d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.95vs book · Pinnacle2.12STATS DIFF +8.7%
40
Tunisia
40% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
63
Japan
63% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate
4.20
Estimate
3.64
Pinnacle
3.50
Marathonbet
-14.6%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Below Estimate
1.32
Estimate
1.30
Pinnacle
1.27
Marathonbet
-1.6%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 21 Jun 03:00older price · 139d agoPinnacleas of 21 Jun 03:00older price · 139d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.62vs book · Pinnacle3.64STATS DIFF +38.9%
20
Tunisia
20% overall · qualifying campaign
10 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
2/10
56
Japan
56% overall · qualifying campaign
16 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 46, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Tunisia
10 games · 1 goalless
47'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Japan
10 games · 1 goalless
45'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

Tunisia to Score

Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
2.64
Estimate
1.82
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathonbet
-24.2%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate
1.62
Estimate
2.00
Pinnacle
1.86
Marathonbet
+18.5%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 21 Jun 03:00older price · 139d agoPinnacleas of 20 Jun 09:31older price · 140d ago
Market

Japan to Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +0.9% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference
1.16
Estimate
1.21
Pinnacle
1.13
Marathonbet
+0.9%
Below Bar
No
Below Estimate
7.60
Estimate
4.04
Pinnacle
6.00
Marathonbet
-18.9%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 21 Jun 03:00older price · 139d agoPinnacleas of 20 Jun 09:31older price · 140d ago
Group FView group
TeamPLWDL+/−GDPTSNext
1
Netherlands
321010-4+67
2
Japan
31207-3+45
3
Sweden
31117-704
4
Tunisia
30032-12-100
Other Group F matches5
Upcoming matchesNext 6
No upcoming fixtures.
All GroupsA–L
ABCDEFGHIJKL
Player PropsStandout shot / SOT / card prices