Group · Match 31FIFA World Cup 2026
Türkiye
Manager: Vincenzo Montella
FT0 – 1
Paraguay
Manager: Gustavo Alfaro
2' M. Fonda
San Francisco Bay Area Stadium · Saturday, 20 June 2026 · 04:00 · FT · Paraguay won after full-time.
Sanstari Daily Market Bulletin
Market

Both Teams To Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
2.00
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
-2.6%
Below Est.
No
Below Estimate
2.02
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
-2.6%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 20 Jun 03:01older price · 140d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds2.77vs book · Bet3651.90STATS DIFF -31.4%
50
Türkiye
50% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
4/9
22
Paraguay
22% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 1.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate
1.41
Estimate
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Marathonbet
-2.2%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Below Estimate
3.50
Estimate
3.23
Pinnacle
3.06
Marathonbet
-10.0%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 20 Jun 03:01older price · 140d agoPinnacleas of 20 Jun 03:01older price · 140d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.95vs book · Pinnacle1.36STATS DIFF -30.1%
75
Türkiye
75% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
7/9
28
Paraguay
28% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
6/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate
2.20
Estimate
2.17
Pinnacle
2.10
Bet365
-1.9%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
Below Estimate
1.84
Estimate
1.75
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
-3.9%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 20 Jun 03:01older price · 140d agoPinnacleas of 20 Jun 03:01older price · 140d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.36vs book · Pinnacle2.17STATS DIFF -8.1%
63
Türkiye
63% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
5/9
22
Paraguay
22% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Market

Goals Over / Under 3.5

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate
4.20
Estimate
3.65
Pinnacle
3.58
Marathonbet
-12.7%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Below Estimate
1.32
Estimate
1.30
Pinnacle
1.26
Marathonbet
-2.3%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 20 Jun 03:01older price · 140d agoPinnacleas of 20 Jun 03:01older price · 140d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.72vs book · Pinnacle3.65STATS DIFF +34.3%
63
Türkiye
63% overall · qualifying campaign
8 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 9
5/9
11
Paraguay
11% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
3/10
Goal timing

When does the first goal arrive?

First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 25, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Türkiye
9 games · 0 goalless
21'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Paraguay
10 games · 1 goalless
28'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market

Türkiye to Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate
1.32
Estimate
1.23
Pinnacle
1.24
Marathonbet
-3.1%
Below Est.
No
Below Estimate
4.20
Estimate
4.17
Pinnacle
4.05
Marathonbet
-1.2%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 20 Jun 03:01older price · 140d agoPinnacleas of 19 Jun 09:32older price · 140d ago
Market

Paraguay to Score

Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +3.4% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference
1.52
Estimate
1.47
Pinnacle
1.53
Marathonbet
+3.4%
Below Bar
No
Below Estimate
2.94
Estimate
2.72
Pinnacle
2.50
Marathonbet
-12.6%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 20 Jun 03:01older price · 140d agoPinnacleas of 19 Jun 09:32older price · 140d ago
Group DView group
TeamPLWDL+/−GDPTSNext
1
United States
32018-4+46
2
Australia
31112-204
3
Paraguay
31112-4-24
4
Türkiye
31023-5-23
Other Group D matches5
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