Group · Match 4FIFA World Cup 2026
United States
Manager: Mauricio Pochettino Trossero
FT4 – 1
Paraguay
Manager: Gustavo Alfaro
7' D. Bobadilla (OG)31' F. Balogun45+5' F. Balogun90+8' G. Reyna
73' Mauricio
Los Angeles Stadium · Saturday, 13 June 2026 · 02:00 · FT · United States won after full-time.
Market
Both Teams To Score
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference2.12
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.05
Bet365
-0.5%
Below Est.
No
Below Estimate1.91
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
-5.9%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 12 Jun 23:45older price · 147d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds4.50vs book · Bet3652.05STATS DIFF -54.5%
United States: no qualifying campaign data
Paraguay
22% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 1.5
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Above Estimate1.44
Estimate
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
Marathonbet
+5.0%
Above Est.
Under 1.5
Below Estimate3.35
Estimate
2.68
Pinnacle
2.55
Marathonbet
-21.5%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 12 Jun 23:45older price · 147d agoPinnacleas of 12 Jun 23:45older price · 147d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds3.60vs book · Pinnacle1.50STATS DIFF -58.3%
United States: no qualifying campaign data
Paraguay
28% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
5/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 2.5
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Below Estimate2.34
Estimate
2.57
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
-2.7%
Below Est.
Under 2.5
Below Estimate1.76
Estimate
1.54
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
-2.9%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 2 Jun 12:10older price · 157d agoPinnacleas of 12 Jun 23:45older price · 147d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds4.50vs book · Pinnacle2.57STATS DIFF -42.9%
United States: no qualifying campaign data
Paraguay
22% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Market
Goals Over / Under 3.5
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Above Estimate4.60
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
4.75
Marathonbet
+8.0%
Above Est.
Under 3.5
Below Estimate1.29
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.16
Marathonbet
-7.2%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 12 Jun 23:45older price · 147d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds9.01vs book · Marathonbet4.75STATS DIFF -47.3%
United States: no qualifying campaign data
Paraguay
11% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
2/10
Goal timing
When does the first goal arrive?
First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 31, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
United States: no qualifying campaign data
Paraguay
10 games · 2 goalless
31'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market
United States to Score
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +3.1% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference1.31
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.31
Marathonbet
+3.1%
Below Bar
No
Below Estimate4.30
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
3.45
Marathonbet
-17.9%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 12 Jun 23:45older price · 147d ago
Market
Paraguay to Score
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +1.9% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference1.64
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.62
Marathonbet
+1.9%
Below Bar
No
Below Estimate2.60
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.30
Marathonbet
-8.7%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 12 Jun 23:45older price · 147d ago
Group DView group
| Team | PL | W | D | L | +/− | GD | PTS | Next | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8-4 | +4 | 6 | |
| 2 | Australia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | |
| 3 | Paraguay | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2-4 | -2 | 4 | |
| 4 | Türkiye | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3-5 | -2 | 3 |
Other Group D matches5
Upcoming matchesNext 6
No upcoming fixtures.