Group · Match 66FIFA World Cup 2026
Uruguay
Manager: Marcelo Bielsa Caldera
FT0 – 1
Spain
Manager: Luis De la Fuente Castillo
42' Á. Baena
Guadalajara Stadium · Saturday, 27 June 2026 · 01:00 · FT · Spain won after full-time.
Market
Both Teams To Score
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate3.10
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
-27.9%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate1.48
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
+11.8%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 26 Jun 22:45older price · 133d ago
BTTS Yes · Evidence
Stats odds4.49vs book · Bet3652.20STATS DIFF -51.0%
Uruguay
28% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
4/10
Spain
17% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
1/8
Market
Goals Over / Under 1.5
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 1.5
Below Estimate1.41
Estimate
1.43
Pinnacle
1.33
Marathonbet
-2.9%
Below Est.
Under 1.5
Below Estimate3.50
Estimate
2.89
Pinnacle
3.12
Marathonbet
-8.2%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 26 Jun 22:45older price · 133d agoPinnacleas of 26 Jun 22:45older price · 133d ago
Over 1.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.24vs book · Pinnacle1.43STATS DIFF +15.2%
Uruguay
61% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
7/10
Spain
100% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
7/8
Market
Goals Over / Under 2.5
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 2.5
Above Estimate2.20
Estimate
2.35
Pinnacle
2.37
Bet365
+10.7%
Above Est.
Under 2.5
Below Estimate1.84
Estimate
1.65
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
-12.3%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
bet365as of 26 Jun 22:45older price · 133d agoPinnacleas of 26 Jun 22:45older price · 133d ago
Over 2.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds1.72vs book · Bet3652.37STATS DIFF +38.2%
Uruguay
33% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
3/10
Spain
83% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
6/8
Market
Goals Over / Under 3.5
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
No active signal or price difference in this market
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Over 3.5
Below Estimate4.20
Estimate
3.49
Pinnacle
3.50
Marathonbet
-14.6%
Below Est.
Under 3.5
Below Estimate1.32
Estimate
1.31
Pinnacle
1.27
Marathonbet
-1.6%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 26 Jun 22:45older price · 133d agoPinnacleas of 26 Jun 22:45older price · 133d ago
Over 3.5 Goals · Evidence
Stats odds2.40vs book · Marathonbet3.50STATS DIFF +46.0%
Uruguay
17% overall · qualifying campaign
18 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 10
2/10
Spain
67% overall · qualifying campaign
6 games
Hit rateMost recent →
Last 8
5/8
Goal timing
When does the first goal arrive?
First goal of the game per 15-min window · qualifying campaign
Fixture read
0-15' MOST LIKELY
Across both campaigns the opener averages minute 25, landing most often in the 0-15 window.
Uruguay
10 games · 2 goalless
36'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Spain
8 games · 1 goalless
14'
Avg first goal
0-15
16-30
31-45+
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Scored first Conceded first
Market
Uruguay to Score
Pre-game
Market State
ABOVE ESTIMATE
The bookmaker price is above our estimate
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
Below Estimate2.70
Estimate
1.83
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathonbet
-33.2%
Below Est.
No
Above Estimate1.60
Estimate
1.99
Pinnacle
2.08
Marathonbet
+34.2%
Above Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 26 Jun 22:45older price · 133d agoPinnacleas of 26 Jun 09:31older price · 134d ago
Market
Spain to Score
Pre-game
Market State
NO SIGNAL
Best price is +4.5% above our estimate — under the 5% bar, so no call
Outcome
Sanstari estimate
Pinnacle
Soft
Difference
Yes
No Difference1.16
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
1.17
Marathonbet
+4.5%
Below Bar
No
Below Estimate7.80
Estimate
—
Pinnacle
5.05
Marathonbet
-33.6%
Below Est.
ⓘ Sanstari estimates are model outputs based on statistical analysis, not predictions. Bookmaker prices are from bet365 and Pinnacle and are timestamped where shown. Odds are for information only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Marathonbetas of 26 Jun 22:45older price · 133d ago
Group HView group
| Team | PL | W | D | L | +/− | GD | PTS | Next | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5-0 | +5 | 7 | — |
| 2 | Cape Verde Islands | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 3 | Uruguay | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3-4 | -1 | 2 | — |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1-5 | -4 | 2 | — |
Other Group H matches5
Upcoming matchesNext 6
No upcoming fixtures.